The Contract Board: Four unsigned stars, one holdout, a rising meter

The number: $113.5 million. That's the projected ceiling for 2027-28, up from $104 million today, and the league's own estimate for the year after is $127.5 million. Every price on this board is set against those figures, and they only move one way.

So here's my read on October. Four stars are playing out the last year of a deal, one defenseman is skating in Sweden, and the teams that hold their rights all sound calm. Calm is the most expensive mood in hockey right now.

This is the first Contract Board. It runs the first Tuesday of every month: who's due, what each one costs, who has leverage, and the best and worst deals in the league. Every price below is my projection, not a report, and I'll grade myself when the ink dries.

Panthers first

Due in 2027: Garnet Hathaway ($1.2 million), Lars Eller, Sam Lafferty and Bokondji Imama ($850,000 each). All four are unrestricted, and none of them changes the math. Florida has 47 of 50 contract slots filled as of Tuesday.

Due in 2028: Brady Tkachuk, Jacob Markstrom and Akira Schmid, all at once. That's the choke point I flagged in the Panthers Cap Check.

The price: Brady Tkachuk, seven years at $11.5 million. One correction to my own file: I wrote eight years in September, and the new CBA caps a re-sign at seven. The number holds, and the first day Florida can offer it is July 1, 2027.

He has no points through three games at 17.4 minutes a night, by our count. That's a small sample, and it doesn't move a price. Markstrom has a .917 save percentage through two starts.

Nobody on this roster is in an extension window today, and with Aleksander Barkov on long-term injured reserve, the cap room is a rental until the next real decision, which is Brady's.

The 2027 unrestricted class

Nikita Kucherov, Tampa Bay. The price: three years at $13 million. I made the full case last week, and nothing has changed but the evidence. He has four points in three games and plays 23 minutes a night, by our count. He turns 34 in June, and Tampa is using him like he's 27.

Quinn Hughes, Minnesota. The price: seven years at $19.5 million. That's the same number as my September projection, one year shorter, because seven is now the limit. The total is $136.5 million, against a $7.85 million cap hit today.

Kaplan's word is that a three-year deal, timed to his brother Jack's 2030 free agency, came up over the summer and never got going. Bill Guerin hasn't set a deadline. Hughes is at 25 minutes a night through two games, with three points.

Jason Robertson, Dallas. The price: seven years at $13.5 million. He took one year at $12 million in July to avoid arbitration, after 45 goals and 96 points in a season where he played all 82 games for the second year running.

Twelve percent of next year's ceiling is the going share for that winger. Dallas bought one year of peace and no discount.

Alex DeBrincat, Detroit. The price: seven years at $11.5 million. He scored 41 goals and 85 points last season on a $7.875 million hit. "My intention is obviously to stay in Detroit," DeBrincat said in September.

Talks were parked until the Red Wings hire a general manager, which is a front office charging itself interest.

The comparables: Drake Batherson signed for eight years and $86 million in Ottawa in September, a $10.75 million average after a 71-point season. Kirill Marchenko is at $12.5 million in Toronto, which I graded fair.

Batherson is the floor for DeBrincat, and Marchenko is the floor for Robertson.

Sidney Crosby ($8.7 million) and Mark Stone ($9.5 million) are in the class too. Both are one-year-at-a-time decisions now, and I won't price either before spring.

The 2027 restricted class

The offer sheet changed this market in July, when Philadelphia put $18 million a year in front of Leo Carlsson and Anaheim matched. Every team with a good 21-year-old now negotiates with that in the room.

Will Smith, San Jose. The price: seven years at $9.5 million. He had 24 goals and 59 points in 69 games on a $950,000 entry-level hit.

Matvei Michkov, Philadelphia. The price: seven years at $8.5 million. He had 20 goals and 51 points in 81 games. Same entry-level number, same summer.

Artyom Levshunov, Chicago. The price: $7 million to $7.5 million, on six or seven years. I opened that file on Sunday. He's at 21.3 minutes a night through three games and still looking for his first point.

The comparables: Lane Hutson at $8.85 million, Fraser Minten at $7.2 million over seven years in Boston, and Tristan Luneau at $7.2 million after 14 NHL games.

The holdout

Simon Edvinsson, Detroit. The price: seven years at $8 million. He's the one real standoff on the board: 23, unsigned and skating with Frolunda. His qualifying offer was $874,125, and he's eligible for an offer sheet.

His leverage is thinner than the noise suggests, because he can sit or sign another team's offer, and Detroit can match any offer sheet. It has more than $16 million in room.

His best card is Luneau, who got $7.2 million with 14 games played. Edvinsson has 175 games, and he played more than 22 minutes a night with a plus-12 last season. That argument wins the average. Gord has who's calling.

Sign him now / Wait

• Sign today: Kucherov, Hughes, DeBrincat, Levshunov. Today's price is set against $104 million. July's is set against $113.5 million, and for the three veterans, against 31 other bidders.

• What the team buys: the exclusive window, plus the seventh year only the current club can offer. On the open market the limit is six.

• What it risks: paying for seasons that haven't been played. For Kucherov that's age. For Levshunov it's a thin résumé.

• Wait: Crosby and Stone. Also the two biggest names of 2028, Connor McDavid ($12.5 million) and Auston Matthews ($13.25 million), who can't sign before July 1, 2027.

• My call: every name on the first line gets more expensive by doing nothing wrong.

The maximum contract is $22.7 million next season, and $25.5 million the year after if the $127.5 million estimate holds. McDavid's price is whatever the maximum is.

The ledger: five best

1. Nathan MacKinnon, Colorado, $12.6 million through 2030-31. He had 127 points last season. The hit is 12.1 percent of the ceiling now and 11.1 percent next year.

2. Lane Hutson, Montreal, $8.85 million through 2033-34. He had 78 points in 82 games from the blue line, and year one of eight just started.

3. Jack Hughes, New Jersey, $8 million through 2029-30. He had 77 points in 61 games. My price for his brother is more than twice that.

4. Matt Boldy, Minnesota, $7 million through 2029-30. He had 42 goals and 85 points in 76 games.

5. Brandon Hagel, Tampa Bay, $6.5 million through 2031-32. He had 36 goals and 74 points in 71 games.

DeBrincat matched Boldy's 85 points, and my price has him costing $4.5 million more. That gap is what signing early buys.

The ledger: five worst

These grade the decision, not the player.

1. Jonathan Huberdeau, Calgary, $10.5 million through 2030-31. He had 25 points in 50 games last season. He's 33, with a full no-movement clause through 2028-29.

2. Elias Pettersson, Vancouver, $11.6 million through 2031-32. He had 51 points in 74 games. In fairness, he has six points and a four-game point streak to open this season, by our count.

3. Bowen Byram, Chicago, $12.5 million from 2027-28 through 2032-33. He had 42 points at 18:12 a night in Buffalo, and the deal carries a full no-movement clause. Chicago is playing him 25 minutes through two games. It has to stay there.

4. Darnell Nurse, San Jose, $9.25 million through 2029-30. He's playing 20.4 minutes a night through three games, with no points.

5. Jacob Trouba, San Jose, $8.25 million through 2029-30. He signed July 1 at 32, after 35 points in 81 games. That's $17.5 million on one blue line.

Florida's candidate, Brad Marchand's 35-plus deal, misses the list because the hit is only $5.25 million. The term is still the problem.

What I'd watch: Detroit. It has the holdout, a 41-goal winger without a deal, and no permanent general manager. Whoever takes that job inherits two prices that rise every week. The next Board is Nov. 3.