Marchenko's $12.5 million is fair now and cheap by 2029

Toronto just gave Kirill Marchenko the same cap hit as Connor McDavid. That sounds like an overpay, but it isn't, and the reason is the rising ceiling rather than the player.

The trade is official: Toronto gets Marchenko, Miles Wood and Elvis Merzlikins. Columbus gets Matthew Knies, Steven Lorentz, Emil Andrae and a conditional 2027 second-round pick, and keeps part of Merzlikins' salary. Marchenko signed a six-year, $75 million extension that runs through 2032-33.

The number: $12.5 million. That's Marchenko's AAV starting next season, up from $3.85 million this year.

Why the price is fair

Marchenko is 26. He has 58 goals and 141 points over the last two seasons, including 27 goals and 67 points in 76 games last year. That's first-line production from a player who was one year from restricted free agency, which is exactly when a team should want to be the one paying him.

Now put the number against the ceiling, which is $104 million this season and $113.5 million next season, when the extension kicks in.

That makes $12.5 million about 11 percent of the cap in year one. If the ceiling reaches the $127.5 million the league first projected for 2028-29, it drops under 10 percent in year two.

That's the whole argument, and it's a structural one: Toronto isn't pricing him against today's cap. It's locking in a fixed number in a league where the cap has been climbing by $9 million or more every year.

The comparables

Adam Fantilli signed in Columbus last week for six years at $13.75 million. He's a 21-year-old center who's never played a playoff game, and Marchenko costs $1.25 million less after scoring more goals last season.

Leo Carlsson's offer sheet in Anaheim came in at $18 million a year. That's the deal that reset this market, and it makes everything under $14 million look like a bargain by comparison.

Knies, the player going the other way, is signed through 2030-31 at $7.75 million. Columbus saves $4.75 million a year on the wing and gets a 23-year-old with a career-high 66 points for the price of a second-liner.

Contract card:

• Player: Kirill Marchenko, RW, Toronto
• Term: 6 years, 2027-28 through 2032-33
• AAV: $12.5 million ($75 million total)
• Cap hit: about 11.0 percent of the $113.5 million 2027-28 ceiling
• Comparables: Fantilli, 6 x $13.75M (CBJ, 2026) · Carlsson, $18M AAV (ANA, 2026) · McDavid, $12.5M AAV (EDM)
• Verdict: fair now, team-friendly by year three. The sixth year is the risk.

The catch

The deal's back half covers his age-31 and age-32 seasons. Six years is a long time for any winger, and that stretch is where deals like this usually turn. Those last two seasons could look heavy, even with a higher ceiling.

Then there's the goalie, who is the accounting piece of this trade. Merzlikins has one year left at $5.4 million and is out indefinitely after shoulder surgery in August. He's expected to open the season on long-term injured reserve, so his money matters less this year than his contract slot does.

Cap sheet:

• Toronto: adds Marchenko at $3.85M this season, plus Wood and a partly retained Merzlikins. Merzlikins is expected to start on LTIR. Marchenko's $12.5M starts in 2027-28.
• Columbus: adds Knies at $7.75M through 2030-31, plus Lorentz and Andrae. Wood's contract and part of Merzlikins' salary come off the books.

Gord has the grades and how the deal came together.

What I'd watch: Toronto's cap sheet in the summer of 2027, because with Marchenko at $12.5 million on top of the core, the next decision is who doesn't get paid.

Header image: a January 2024 photo of Marchenko with Columbus, digitally edited to show a Toronto jersey. He has not yet played for the Maple Leafs.