The Ledger: Every month Tampa waits on Kucherov costs real money

The number: 9.1 percent.

That's Nikita Kucherov's $9.5 million cap hit as a share of this season's $104 million ceiling. When he signed the deal in July 2018, it was 11.66 percent of the cap. He just won the Hart Trophy with 130 points, 44 goals and 86 assists in 76 games, and this is the last season Tampa gets him at that share.

Tampa should sign him this week, not next July, and the reason isn't sentiment. It's arithmetic that gets worse every month.

Where it stands

The contract expires after this season, and Kucherov has been eligible to extend since July 1. Julien BriseBois said on Sept. 16 that "both parties I know would prefer to have a deal today to put that behind us." Kucherov's answer was shorter: "My mind is trying to help the team this year. I control what I can control."

LeBrun's read is that both sides are calm and it happens when it happens. That calm is the expensive part, because three things move against Tampa while it waits.

The ceiling

The cap is $104 million now and $113.5 million next season. Friedman relayed a $127.5 million guesstimate for 2028-29, a $14 million jump in one year that the league itself won't call firm.

A 12 percent share of the cap, which is what Connor McDavid took on his two-year deal, is $12.5 million today, $13.6 million next season and $15.3 million the year after. An agent who waits until July prices year two of Kucherov's deal against that third number. An agent who signs in September prices it against the first.

The term

Sept. 16 was the last day for an eight-year deal. The new CBA caps a re-sign at seven. For a player who turns 34 in June, the eighth year was theoretical anyway. The structure rules that arrived the same day are not.

Signing bonuses are now capped at 60 percent of a contract's value. The gap between any two years can't exceed 20 percent of the first year's salary, and no year can pay less than 71 percent of the highest one. Kucherov's current deal paid him $11 million in bonus money in 2019-20 and $3 million in each of the last two years. That shape is gone. What's left is a flat number, and flat numbers are where AAV fights happen.

The production

Four straight 100-point seasons, three Art Ross trophies, two Harts, and he's 33. Every 20-point month between now and July is one more page in Dan Milstein's folder, and a healthy Kucherov does not get cheaper by spring.

The comparables

Connor McDavid, 28, two years at $12.5 million, signed last October: 12.02 percent of the cap, and the share every star's short-term ask now starts from.

Artemi Panarin, 34, two years at $11 million, signed in February when Los Angeles traded for him with 57 points in 52 games. Same age Kucherov will be on day one of his next deal, a fraction of the production.

Sidney Crosby, 37, two years at $8.7 million, signed in 2024. That's the loyalty deal. Kucherov's 2018 contract was already Tampa's, and you don't get two from one player.

Kirill Marchenko, $12.5 million a year in Toronto, which I graded fair on Monday. That's a 12 percent share for a winger Toronto had to send Matthew Knies to Columbus to get.

The price

Three years at $13 million, $39 million total. That's my projection, not a report. One public projection model has him at two years and $12 million, which is the Panarin shape, and it underprices the reigning MVP.

The math: $13 million is 12.5 percent of this year's cap and 11.5 percent of next year's, the season the deal starts. That's a smaller share than McDavid took on the day he signed. Term is where the age curve gets paid: three years takes Kucherov to 37, where Crosby was when Pittsburgh went to two-year deals. A fourth year is the agent's ask. I'd give it only at $12.5 million.

Cap sheet: Tampa Bay Lightning

• Space today: $1.90 million, 23 on the active roster
• LTIR: none (Gourde and Dominic James are on regular IR)
• Retained-salary slots: 3 of 3 used
• Contracts: 47 of 50
• 2027-28: about $82.8 million committed against a $113.5 million cap before Kucherov. Point, Guentzel, Hagel and Cirelli run through at least 2031. Vasilevskiy and John Carlson run through 2028.

Cap-site figures as of Tuesday morning; the 2027-28 line is a summer projection.

Sign him now / Wait

• Cost today: three years at $13 million, priced against McDavid and Panarin and a $104 million cap.
• Cost next summer: the same player with another big year behind him and a $127.5 million ceiling on the horizon. A 12 percent share of that estimate is $15.3 million. That's the agent's opening bid in July.
• What Tampa buys now: the exclusive window. After July 1 the price is set by 31 other teams, and somebody always has the room.
• What Tampa risks: year three of a deal for a 36-year-old. Real, and the same risk it accepted when it built the roster around him.
• The call: sign now. Paying a 36-year-old $13 million is a smaller risk than paying a 34-year-old $15 million.

What I'd watch

The first 20 games. If Kucherov is on his usual pace by Thanksgiving with no deal, that's not patience. That's a team letting the market set a price it could have set itself in September. Florida, for the record, is about a million over the cap with November's bill still coming. Tampa's answer to that is $30 million of room next summer, and Kucherov decides how much of it survives.