Luneau's $7.2 million just set the price on Levshunov
Anaheim paid a 14-game defenseman six years; Chicago has four 2027 RFAs and should lock up Levshunov before the ceiling climbs again.
Chicago's four pending 2027 restricted free agents just got more expensive, and none of them played a shift to earn it. Anaheim did it for them on Thursday. The smart move for Kyle Davidson is to pay Artyom Levshunov now, before this market climbs again, and to bridge the rest.
The number: $7.2 million. That's the average annual value of the six-year, $43.2 million extension Anaheim gave defenseman Tristan Luneau on Oct. 1. Luneau had 14 NHL games behind him when he signed it. That figure is now the floor of every conversation about a young defenseman with upside and a thin résumé.
It's the second shove this year. In July, Philadelphia handed Leo Carlsson a five-year, $90 million offer sheet, an $18 million AAV, and Anaheim matched it. That's 17.3% of this season's $104 million ceiling for a 21-year-old center.
"It changed things, and you have to crank the dial," Davidson said of the Carlsson deal.
Contract card: Tristan Luneau, Anaheim
- Term: six years, starting 2027-28, through 2032-33
- AAV: $7.2 million; total: $43.2 million
- Structure: escalating salaries, modified trade protection in the final two seasons
- Cap hit share: 6.3% of the projected $113.5 million ceiling for 2027-28
- The comparables: Carlsson at $18 million for five years; Frank Nazar at about $6.6 million for seven years ($46.13 million total); Oliver Moore at $4.25 million for five years, signed after 60 NHL games
- Verdict: the AAV is a bet on two seasons that haven't happened yet. The term is the smart part, because it buys every year the ceiling keeps rising.
Chicago's four
Chicago already locked up Moore. That leaves forward Ryan Greene and defensemen Levshunov, Sam Rinzel and Wyatt Kaiser.
Here is what Chicago is actually using them for. Through three games, by our count, Levshunov is playing 21.3 minutes a night and Kaiser 21.1. Rinzel is at 17.9 through two, and Greene at 15.8. Levshunov has no points yet, which is a small sample and also the argument Chicago's side of the table will make.
Greene and Kaiser are bridge candidates. Both play real minutes, but neither projects as a big point producer, and a two- or three-year deal keeps their price tied to what they've done rather than what Anaheim paid for.
Levshunov is different. He went second overall in 2024, and Chicago is already handing him top-four minutes.
Sign him now / Wait: Artyom Levshunov
- Now: my projection is $7 million to $7.5 million over six or seven years, set by Luneau's $7.2 million and Nazar's term. It runs through the years the ceiling is projected to reach $127.5 million in 2028-29.
- Wait: Chicago keeps leverage while he's inconsistent and pointless through three games. If he struggles, the price on a bridge falls.
- The risk of waiting: one good season, plus another rise in the ceiling, and the number starts with an eight.
- My call: sign him now. Paying for a breakout that might come is cheaper than paying for one that already did.
Rinzel sits between the two. If he keeps getting 18 minutes, he's a Levshunov conversation next summer.
What I'd watch: whether Chicago gets Levshunov's deal done this season. Every month it waits, it negotiates against a bigger ceiling and another Luneau.
