The price: Quinn Hughes at $19.5 million, and why now

The number: $22.7 million. That's what the maximum contract becomes on July 1, 2027, when the cap climbs to a projected $113.5 million and 20 percent of it is the ceiling on any one player. Today the ceiling is $20.8 million.

Every month the Wild let Quinn Hughes' extension sit, they're negotiating against a number that's about to grow by nearly $2 million.

Craig Leipold doesn't sound worried. Asked by TSN's Pierre LeBrun on his way out of Tuesday's Board of Governors meeting whether the Wild would sign Hughes, the owner gave two words: "We will." Hughes, for his part, told reporters he doesn't "feel stressed to do something before the season," per TSN.

That's a calm room. The math says it shouldn't be quite that calm.

Where the file sits

Hughes, 26, is in the last year of the six-year, $47.1 million deal he signed in Vancouver in October 2021. The cap hit is $7.85 million, per NHL.com. He's a pending unrestricted free agent, eligible to extend since July 1.

Minnesota paid a lot to get him: Zeev Buium, Marco Rossi, Liam Ohgren and a first-round pick went to the Canucks in the December trade, per TSN. Hughes then put up 53 points in 48 games for the Wild, 76 for the season, and 15 in 11 playoff games while averaging 30:57 a night, per NHL.com and TSN.

GM Bill Guerin told SKOR North on Aug. 31 that he's "confident," while conceding "we can't make him sign anything." He also pointed to last year's Kaprizov deal, which didn't get done until Sept. 30. The Wild open Oct. 1.

The comparables

Cale Makar reset the whole market on Aug. 28: eight years, $163.2 million, a $20.4 million cap hit starting in 2027-28, with a full no-move clause, per NHL.com and Sports Illustrated. SI puts that at roughly 18 percent of the projected 2027-28 cap. Makar had 79 points in 75 games last season and finished second in Norris voting.

Macklin Celebrini signed for five years at $18.8 million on July 29, per NHL.com. Leo Carlsson landed at $18 million when Anaheim matched Philadelphia's offer sheet. Kirill Kaprizov, the man Hughes shares a cap sheet with, is at $17 million on the eight-year deal he signed last Sept. 30.

That's the market. Two players under 25 at $18 million-plus on short term, and the best defenseman in the league at $20.4 million on the longest term allowed.

The price

My projection: eight years at $19.5 million, $156 million total, with a no-move clause and a signing-bonus-heavy structure like Makar's. Call it $19.25 to $19.75 million as the range.

Here's how I get there. Hughes has one Norris and a 76-point season; Makar has the second-place Norris finish from last season and the deeper résumé at a similar age. Hughes' camp will argue he shouldn't take a discount to a peer. Minnesota will argue Makar is the ceiling, not the floor.

Splitting that difference lands you just under $19.5 million, or about 17 percent of a $113.5 million cap.

PuckPedia's own users are in the same neighborhood. Its PuckGM mock-extension data from early September clustered most term lengths between $18.1 and $18.7 million, with three-year deals the most popular build. I'd treat that as a floor, not a projection; the Makar number moved the market after most of those mocks were built.

One caveat, and it's a big one: Hughes told Daily Faceoff's Matt Larkin he sees the Makar-Celebrini territory as a reasonable target. If the player's ask starts at $20 million, my number is light by a half-million a year.

Sign him now / Wait

Sign him now. The ceiling on his ask is $20.8 million today and $22.7 million next July. Every good month he plays between now and then adds to the leverage, and his October-to-May last year was a 76-point season plus a gold medal.

The Wild have $67.5 million committed for 2027-28, per PuckPedia as of Wednesday; adding $19.5 million leaves roughly $26 million for a No. 1 center and Jesper Wallstedt's next deal. That works.

Wait. The Wild have $1.15 million in cap space this season, per PuckPedia as of Wednesday, with 23 of 23 roster spots filled. Nothing about the extension changes this year's sheet, so there's no cap cost to waiting. Hughes has said he loves the group. And the Kaprizov precedent says Guerin can let a deadline pass and still close.

My call: now. The cap cost of waiting is zero, but the price cost isn't. Every argument for patience is about comfort; every argument for urgency is about dollars. At this tier, dollars win.

What I'd watch

The first number Hughes' side floats, and whether it starts with a two. If the ask is $20 million-plus, the Wild are choosing between the richest defense contract in history and a summer where every team with space, his brothers' included, gets to bid.

If it starts with a 19, Leipold's two words look prophetic and the deal gets done by the home opener.