The Contract Board: Kucherov's $20 million ask, and Detroit's four weeks
Marcus Lind's November board grades his DeBrincat miss, reprices Kucherov for the open market, and puts two Lightning contracts on the worst-five list.
The number: two. That's how many contract conversations Nikita Kucherov says he had with Tampa Bay in four months. "It was never about the money for me," he said Monday. "It was more poor communication and respect."
Last month I priced him at three years and $13 million and called the exclusive window Tampa's last lever. On Friday he told the Lightning he won't re-sign and asked for a trade. The lever is gone, and so is my number.
This is the second Contract Board. Same rules: who's due, what each one costs, who has leverage, and the five best and worst deals in the league. Every price is my projection, not a report, and I grade my own file first.
Grading October
DeBrincat: I was $1.5 million low. I had him at seven years and $11.5 million. Detroit paid seven years and $91 million, a $13 million hit, with a full no-trade for the first four years. I built the price up from Batherson's $10.75 million and called it the floor.
It was the floor. The market started at Marchenko's $12.5 million and climbed.
The lesson is the ceiling. $13 million is 12.5 percent of this year's cap and 11.5 percent of next year's. Detroit paid next year's share today, and every price below is read that way now.
Kucherov: wrong lever, right direction. Johnston has the ask at six years and $20 million a season, and one report has Tampa's offers climbing from about $13 million to $15 million after the Carlsson offer sheet and the Makar extension. Both are reports, not terms.
What's confirmed is the player: 18 points in 13 games, 21.0 minutes a night and a three-game point streak, per NHL data.
A $20 million hit would be 17.6 percent of next year's ceiling. Makar's $20.4 million is 18 percent. The ask isn't crazy. The gap between the ask and the offer is.
Panthers first
Space: $1.41 million as of last Tuesday, with Barkov and Gadjovich on long-term injured reserve, and 47 of 50 contracts used. Nothing on the sheet I ran last week has moved. Barkov and Marchand are both skating again, the activation bill is still $2.56 million, and Marchand's $5.25 million never left the books.
Larkin, for the record. Florida was on his original three-team list. Friedman now calls the Panthers "very hard, if not impossible" as a bidder, and the cap is why. Larkin's $8.7 million runs through 2030-31, and a team living at zero can only take it on dollar for dollar. Gord has who's actually in it.
Due in 2027: Garnet Hathaway ($1.2 million), Lars Eller, Sam Lafferty and Bokondji Imama ($850,000 each), all unrestricted. None of them moves the math.
Due in 2028: Brady Tkachuk, Jacob Markstrom and Akira Schmid, together. The price holds: Brady Tkachuk, seven years at $11.5 million, first available July 1, 2027. He has 16 points in 15 games, eight of them goals, at 16.6 minutes a night, per NHL data. That's top-line production at third-line minutes on an $8.2 million hit.
The goalie is the 2028 decision. Markstrom is at .890 through seven starts and Schmid is at .889 through seven, per NHL data. Seven starts each is a small sample, and Markstrom is on injured reserve.
But Florida will price a starter, a backup and a Tkachuk in the same July, and right now neither goalie has made the first two easy.
Florida's ledger candidate: Seth Jones. He has 18 points in 15 games at 25.0 minutes a night, both team highs, per NHL data, on a $9.5 million deal through 2029-30 that Chicago still pays part of. He isn't in my five best yet. He's closer than Marchand's 35-plus deal is to the five worst.
The 2027 unrestricted class
Nikita Kucherov, Tampa Bay. The price: four years at $16 million. That's the open-market number, my projection, with 31 bidders and a six-year limit for anyone but the team holding his rights. A club that trades for him before March gets the seventh year and the only discount left in this file.
Tampa's sheet opens about $30 million next summer, and I wrote that it was all spoken for in a specific order. The first name on the list just took itself off.
Quinn Hughes, Minnesota. The price: seven years at $18.5 million, or four at $19.5 million. Unchanged from last week. Bill Guerin's line this week was "What am I going to do, say please, please, please?" Hughes said something could happen soon. Those two quotes agree.
He's at 21 points in 16 games, 27.7 minutes a night, on a five-game point streak, and Minnesota is 4-0-1 in its last five at plus-11, per NHL data.
Jason Robertson, Dallas. The price: seven years at $14 million, up from $13.5 million. Talks are set to open around Dec. 1. He has 14 points in 14 games at 19.9 minutes, per NHL data. DeBrincat's $13 million is now his floor, and a winger who scored 45 goals last season doesn't sign at the floor.
Mark Stone and Sidney Crosby. Stone has 10 goals in 16 games on $9.5 million and Crosby has 10 points in 14, per NHL data. Both are still one-year-at-a-time calls, and I'll price them in the spring.
The 2027 restricted class
Will Smith, San Jose. The price: seven years at $9.5 million, unchanged. He has 10 points in 16 games at 19.2 minutes, per NHL data, and the Sharks are 1-4 in their last five at minus-8. The sample is making him cheaper for San Jose by the week.
Matvei Michkov, Philadelphia. The price: seven years at $9 million, up from $8.5 million. Ten goals in 16 games at 15.9 minutes a night, per NHL data. That's third-line usage and first-line goals. If the minutes catch up, so does the number, and they will.
Artyom Levshunov, Chicago. The price: $7 million to $7.5 million, on six or seven years, unchanged. Three points in 15 games and a seven-game pointless streak at 20.6 minutes, per NHL data, on a team that's 1-3-1 in its last five with a 10.6 percent power play.
Every pointless week is a discount for Chicago. That's the argument for signing him now, not the argument against.
The holdout
Simon Edvinsson, Detroit. The price: seven years at $8 million, unchanged. The date is the file now. If he isn't signed by Dec. 1, or traded to a team that signs him, he's done for the season.
Dreger has Detroit's offers at one, two, five and seven years with the money as the sticking point, and Friedman has Detroit turning down a serious offer and waiting.
The leverage read: four weeks, and both sides are holding the same clock. A 23-year-old who sits out the year gets older without getting richer, and Detroit's room, about $16 million last month, doesn't shrink while it waits. The seven-year offer is the one that matters. My number is where it lands.
Dylan Larkin, Detroit. He isn't a contract file. He's a suspended one, forfeiting about $41,000 a day on a deal that runs through 2030-31 with a full no-trade clause. Detroit is 3-2 in its last five and killing penalties at 70.2 percent, per NHL data.
Whoever takes the job in that front office inherits the holdout, the suspension and the no-trade list on the same desk.
Sign him now / Wait
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Sign today: Hughes, Robertson, Michkov, Levshunov. Today's price is set against $104 million. July's is set against $113.5 million, and for Hughes and Robertson, against 31 other bidders.
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What the team buys: the seventh year only the current club can offer, and a number set before the next ceiling jump.
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What it risks: Michkov's minutes staying at 16, and Levshunov's résumé staying thin.
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Wait: Stone, Crosby, and the two biggest names of 2028. Connor McDavid has a point in all 15 Edmonton games, 39 of them, per NHL data. His price is still whatever the maximum is, $22.7 million next season, and he and Auston Matthews can't sign before July 1, 2027.
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My call: DeBrincat was the warning. The number you refuse in October is the floor in July.
The ledger: five best
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Nathan MacKinnon, Colorado, $12.6 million through 2030-31. He has 25 points in 15 games on a five-game point streak, per NHL data, at 11.1 percent of next year's ceiling.
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Lane Hutson, Montreal, $8.85 million through 2033-34. He has 13 points in 14 games at 24.9 minutes a night, per NHL data, in year one of eight.
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Jack Hughes, New Jersey, $8 million through 2029-30. He has 16 points in 14 games, per NHL data. My price for his brother is more than twice that.
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Brandon Hagel, Tampa Bay, $6.5 million through 2031-32. Up a spot. He has 16 points in 13 games at 21.5 minutes a night, per NHL data, at 6.25 percent of the cap. He's also the best argument for staying in Tampa that the Lightning have left.
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Matt Boldy, Minnesota, $7 million through 2029-30. Down a spot. He has 14 points in 16 games on a five-game point streak, per NHL data.
Kaprizov's $17 million misses the list on principle, not production: 15 goals in 16 games, per NHL data, is what that number is supposed to buy.
The ledger: five worst
These grade the deal as it sits today, not the player.
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Jonathan Huberdeau, Calgary, $10.5 million through 2030-31. He hasn't played this season after hip surgery in March. Five years left on the biggest number in Calgary, with a full no-movement clause through 2028-29. The grade is on the 2022 decision, and it hasn't changed.
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Bowen Byram, Chicago, $12.5 million from 2027-28 through 2032-33. One point in six games at 24.7 minutes a night, per NHL data, around an upper-body injury. The deal hasn't even started.
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Darnell Nurse, San Jose, $9.25 million through 2029-30. Two points in 15 games at 21.4 minutes, on a five-game pointless streak, per NHL data.
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J.J. Moser, Tampa Bay, $6.75 million through 2033-34. New to the list. No points in 13 games at 18.3 minutes a night, down from 21.6 last season, per NHL data. Year one of eight, and minutes are how a defensive defenseman gets graded.
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Andrei Vasilevskiy, Tampa Bay, $9.5 million through 2027-28. New to the list. He's at .877 through 10 starts and .870 over his last five, per NHL data. Ten starts is a small sample, and I'll say so. Two years left on the biggest goalie number in the state is the problem.
Off the list: Elias Pettersson, who has 16 points in 16 games at 20.1 minutes, per NHL data. I'm not calling $11.6 million good. I'm saying 16 in 16 is what it's supposed to buy. Jacob Trouba comes off too, with 10 points in 16 games at 22.7 minutes. A 32-year-old doing that isn't the worst anything.
Florida's candidate, Marchand's 35-plus deal, misses again because the hit is only $5.25 million.
What I'd watch: Dec. 1. The next Board runs that morning, and it will know by that afternoon whether Edvinsson signed, got moved or sat. Robertson's talks open the same week. Two prices on one day, and the Board will grade both.
