Larkin sitting out hands Minnesota the leverage Detroit wanted
Larkin's camp says he won't play until he's dealt, the Wings may suspend him, and the Wild are still the team to beat.
Dylan Larkin just moved the leverage in his own trade, and it didn't move toward Detroit. The moment his camp said he won't play until he's dealt, every GM on his list learned the Red Wings' deadline. Minnesota was already the favorite. Now it gets to negotiate against a clock.
That's the read. Here's how it got here.
1. On the record. Larkin sat out Thursday against Chicago, after a maintenance day kept him off the ice Wednesday. Then his agent, Pat Brisson, made it official in a statement: "Dylan's had enough of the situation." Brisson added that Larkin has been "very professional and cooperative through this process."
Coach Todd McLellan said interim GM Shawn Horcoff would address it. Horcoff got the chair when Steve Yzerman stepped down, and this is quite the first big file.
The read: a player doesn't go public like this unless his side believes a deal was close and stalled on price.
2. Reported. Dreger floated that Detroit may suspend Larkin for sitting out. That would cost him $41,237.11 for every day of it. Larkin is in year four of an eight-year, $69.6 million deal at an $8.7 million cap hit, so he can afford a stand-off longer than the Wings can afford the headlines.
The read: a suspension is a message to the fan base, not a strategy. It doesn't raise the return by a single pick.
3. Reported. Kaplan has Minnesota with one of the strongest offers on the table, and Detroit checking whether anyone tops it. The Wild were on Larkin's original three-team list. Detroit wants a real player or two back, not just futures, which narrows the field fast.
What the numbers say: Minnesota is 7-2-1 in its last 10, plus-6 over its last five and 4-0 at home, by our count. Its power play is at 26.5%. That's a team buying to win now, which is the only kind of team that pays full freight for a 30-year-old center.
Detroit, by contrast, is killing penalties at 65.9% by our count, and losing its top center doesn't fix that.
4. Rumbling. The league chatter still points to St. Paul, and no second team has surfaced with a better package. When the favorite in August is still the favorite at Halloween, believe it.
5. The Panthers item. Florida is on Larkin's 10-team list, but by LeBrun's read the Panthers haven't engaged. That squares with the money. Marcus explained why Barkov's LTIR room was never Larkin money back on Oct. 3. File under: Trade winds, not in Sunrise.
6. The Canadian file. Montreal, Buffalo, Boston, Nashville and St. Louis have all been linked, and none of them is on the list. I covered why Montreal was never getting there yesterday. Thursday's word that he isn't looking for a Canadian address closes it. Habs fans can stop refreshing.
What the numbers say about Larkin himself: two goals and six points in 10 games, at 21.7 minutes a night, per NHL data. That's a top-line workload with a third-line return so far. Every day he sits, that line stays frozen and the buyers get to point at it.
Housekeeping: the Wings play Chicago without their best center, and the trade list hasn't grown since it went from three teams to 10. Ten destinations sounds like options. With one buyer pushing and a player who won't dress, it's really one.
Gord's call: Larkin is a member of the Wild by Nov. 10, and Detroit takes a roster player plus a first-round pick, with the Wild still holding firsts in the years that follow. File under: Trade winds.
