The Wild should pay Quinn Hughes now, and give him the short deal
Bill Guerin hasn't talked contract with Hughes's camp in a long time. The cap math says waiting only raises the price.
The number: 27:11. That's Quinn Hughes's average ice time this season, second among NHL defensemen with eight or more games, per NHL data. Cale Makar, the defenseman who just set the market, is at 22:24.
Bill Guerin says he hasn't talked to Hughes's camp about a contract "in a long time," and that there's "nothing really to talk about right now." I understand the patience. I don't think the Wild can afford it, and the reason is arithmetic, not panic.
Where it stands
Hughes is in the last year of the six-year, $47.1 million deal he signed in Vancouver, a $7.85 million cap hit. He's been eligible to extend since July 1 and can walk on July 1, 2027.
He's earning it. Hughes has 18 points in 14 games, second among defensemen, and he passed 500 career points in his 520th game. By our count he's also second among NHL defensemen in power-play time, at 4:28 a night, behind only Florida's Seth Jones.
Minnesota is 9-3-2 and first in the Central. Guerin also said this week he hasn't decided whether Hughes stays for the full season if there's no deal. That line matters more than the "nothing to talk about" one.
The price
The price: seven years at about $18.5 million, or four at about $19.5 million. That's my projection, not a reported number.
The comparables: Makar's eight-year, $20.4 million extension is the ceiling of the market, and it's the one Guerin himself called "a bar." At the NHL's projected $113.5 million cap for 2027-28, it's about 18 percent of the ceiling. Kirill Kaprizov's $17 million is the internal marker, and Hughes knows it.
Hughes doesn't need to beat Makar. He needs to land close enough that nobody in the room has to explain the gap. A shorter deal costs more per year, because he'd be betting on another ceiling jump and another payday at 31.
Term is the real fight. Owner Craig Leipold has said Hughes might prefer something shorter, perhaps three years, while the Wild hoped for five. The new CBA caps a re-signing at seven years, so the eight-year Makar structure is already off the table.
Sign him now / Wait
Sign him now: The ceiling is projected to jump to $113.5 million next season, and a bigger ceiling only pushes the number up. Waiting lets that market set itself. Jared Spurgeon's $7.575 million expires the same summer, which covers about two-thirds of the raise I'm projecting.
Jesper Wallstedt's RFA raise lands then too, and that number only grows if he keeps posting a .922 save percentage. Get Hughes done first and the rest of the sheet has a fixed point.
Wait: A long deal for a 27-year-old defenseman carries age-curve risk in years six and seven. Waiting also lets Minnesota see whether the 9-3-2 start is real before it commits nine figures.
My call: sign him now, and give him the shorter term he wants at the higher number. Four years at about $19.5 million keeps the Wild out of the bad years and keeps Hughes in Minnesota through his prime. The risk of a trade-deadline decision with no deal in place is worse than any version of the number.
What I'd watch
Whether Guerin's "nothing to talk about" turns into a deadline. If there's no deal by the holiday freeze, the question stops being how much and becomes whether, and that's a different, worse conversation for Minnesota.
