Kucherov is four points from Stamkos, and 195 games ahead of him

Nikita Kucherov is going to pass Steven Stamkos as the Lightning's all-time leading scorer, and the only question is whether he does it in Las Vegas tonight or makes Tampa wait for a home crowd. Either way, the number that matters isn't the 1,138th point. It's the 195 games he didn't need.

Kucherov sits at 1,134 points in 887 games with the Lightning. Stamkos left with 1,137 in 1,082. That's 1.28 points a game against 1.05, which is the gap between a great franchise player and the best one the franchise has had.

Stamkos has been gracious about it. "Whether I stayed or left, I think it was going to happen at some point," he said. He's right, and he plays in Nashville now, so he doesn't have to watch.

The shots are back

Here's why tonight is live. Kucherov has 10 points in eight games, but his first six nights were oddly quiet at the net: nine shots total, by our count. Then he put eight on goal against Seattle and seven against Vancouver. He scored twice in Saturday's 4-2 comeback over the Canucks after Tampa fell behind 2-0.

That's 15 shots in two games, per NHL data, and a player who shoots that much isn't waiting for the puck to find him. He's hunting it.

The power play is the strange part

The Lightning power play is converting 10.7 percent through eight games, by our count. That's a small sample, it won't survive long with Kucherov running the top unit, and it hasn't cost them anything at home, where Tampa is a perfect 5-0.

Vegas is a good place for the power play to wake up. The Golden Knights' penalty kill is at 73.9 percent through 10 games, by our count. If Tampa draws two or three calls, three points is in play. Four is a lot to ask of anybody.

Vegas is no soft landing otherwise. The Knights are 4-1 in their last five with a plus-10 goal differential, and Jack Eichel has 18 points in 10 games. This one could turn into a track meet, which is precisely the kind of evening Kucherov tends to enjoy.

What it means

Jon Cooper summed up the "Triplets" years in one line: "'Kuch' was the catalyst." That line has aged into the franchise's whole story. Stamkos was the captain and the face of two Cups. Kucherov was the engine, and the record book is about to say so.

He's also doing it at 1.28 points a game across 887 games, which is the part that should end the debate. Stamkos earned his record over 16 seasons. Kucherov is taking it with 195 fewer games and a considerably heavier scoresheet.

Ferda take: He doesn't get four tonight. He ties it in Vegas or the game after, and he passes Stamkos inside a week. Somewhere in Nashville, a gracious man changes the channel.