Kaprizov vs. McDavid is the headline, but the Wild power play is the story

Tonight's Wild-Oilers game is being sold as Kirill Kaprizov against Connor McDavid, and it should be. But the stat that decides it isn't on either star's line. It's Minnesota's power play against an Edmonton penalty kill that keeps leaking, and that matchup favors the Wild.

Puck drops at 9 p.m. ET in Edmonton, with the Wild at 6-2-1 and the Oilers at 6-1-1 after starting the year with five straight road wins.

The two lines everybody will quote

McDavid has 23 points in eight games, six goals and 17 assists. Those 17 assists tie Mario Lemieux and Wayne Gretzky for the most through a player's first eight games of a season. By our count he has a point in all eight, and he's playing 23.4 minutes a night, per NHL data.

Kaprizov leads the league with 10 goals in nine games. That's the fastest any Wild player has reached double digits, beating Brian Rolston's 12 games in 2006-07. He's on a six-game point streak with seven goals and five assists in it.

Zach Hyman summed up his captain well. "It looks like he's hit another gear this year, finishing like crazy," he said. Kaprizov kept it shorter: "I think it should be fun."

The number that matters more

Here's the Ferda number. Minnesota's power play is converting 32.1 percent this season. Edmonton's penalty kill is stopping 70.8 percent. Both are by our count from NHL data, and both are early-season samples through eight or nine games.

That's the best power play in this game running into the worst penalty kill. Kaprizov's winner on Sunday against Columbus came on the man advantage. Give Minnesota four power plays tonight and the math says at least one goes in.

The other side of it cuts the same way. Edmonton's power play is a strong 25.0 percent, but Minnesota kills 89.3 percent. The Oilers' biggest weapon runs into the Wild's best unit.

The goalies

Jesper Wallstedt has started eight of Minnesota's nine games and sits at .921, per NHL data. Edmonton has split the net. Devon Levi is at .897 over five starts and Tristan Jarry at .873 over three. The Oilers score enough to cover that most nights. Against a power play this hot, it's a real problem.

The Ferda take

McDavid gets his points, because he has every night this season, and betting against that streak is a good way to look silly. But hockey games aren't won on assist records. Minnesota has the edge in net and on special teams, and that's usually where tight games break.

The call: Kaprizov scores on the power play, McDavid extends his streak with an assist, and the Wild win by one. If Edmonton stays out of the box, flip it. Discipline is the whole game for the Oilers tonight.