Gord's Notebook: Hellebuyck's Friday, Larkin's clock, and Pittsburgh starts selling

The rumor market has a calendar now. Hellebuyck's suspension runs out Friday, Larkin has a television clock on him, and two Canadian teams are shopping in the same store. My read: the only real deadline belongs to Winnipeg, and the first deal that closes will be one nobody has spent a column on.

1. Hellebuyck has a Friday. The suspension for skipping camp ends Oct. 23, and Friedman's list Monday morning was four teams: Buffalo, the Rangers, possibly Utah, possibly Carolina. Buffalo is in because it has wanted him since the summer and he's willing to go there. Grade: Reported.

The read: Two "possiblys" is a market with one serious bidder, and Winnipeg has let it be known it would rather make no trade than a bad one. Friday is a date on the Jets' calendar, not a deadline. File under: Trade winds.

2. The room has already voted. Lowry called Hellebuyck a good friend and said there would have to be "conversations" if he shows up. Arniel: "I really don't care right now on that scenario." On the record.

The read: A captain saying "conversations" in October is a captain saying no in any other month. If Hellebuyck walks back in Friday, it's to raise his price, not to start.

3. What the numbers say: Winnipeg can wait, Buffalo can't. The Jets are 4-2-2 without him and Skinner is at .905 through five starts, per NHL data. Buffalo's side: Luukkonen is at .860 through six starts, Ellis at .864 in three, and the penalty kill is at 64.5 percent, per NHL data.

One team can wait on a trade. The other can't wait on a goalie. All the leverage sits on Winnipeg's side of the table.

4. Larkin's clock is a TV clock. Buccigross put it out there Oct. 16: a trade in Detroit "within seven to 10 days," and yes, he meant Larkin. That's a studio prediction, not word from a GM's office. Grade: Rumbling. The ask hasn't moved from the one I ran against the cap sheets last week.

The read: Horcoff keeps saying he won't rebuild, and the ask is a rebuild ask. Interim GMs don't make franchise trades on a television clock. I'd take the under.

5. What the numbers say, Detroit edition. Larkin's minutes have gone up every week: 20.7 on Oct. 6, 22.7 on the 10th, 23.3 on the 15th and 24.7 on Saturday, his season high, per NHL data. Detroit is 3-3-2 with a 69.0 percent kill. That's a coach leaning on the guy, not a team showcasing him. File under: Trade winds.

6. Toronto is shopping, and it brought the good stuff. Friedman says the Leafs want a difference-maker on the blue line, not a band-aid while Tanev is out, and will pay a premium asset for the right one.

Not an A asset for a B player, though. The names floating around are Danford, Akhtyamov and the Colorado first. Grade: Reported on the intent, Smoke on the pieces.

The read: Toronto is 3-4-2, and Rielly's minutes are down to 16.2, 18.6 and 17.8 in the last three games from 21.5 on opening night, per NHL data. That's the hole. The Leafs are the Leafs: the premium asset leaves in November and the defenceman arrives older than they wanted. File under: Trade winds.

7. Calgary is the store Toronto is standing in. Pagnotta says teams called Conroy about Whitecloud right after the Vegas trade, Toronto may escalate, and Montreal looked last season. Whitecloud has a year left at $2.75 million. Zary cleared waivers because teams want Calgary to retain money on his $3.775 million, and Frost is in a walk year. Grade: Rumbling.

The read: Whitecloud played 24.3 minutes on Oct. 13 and 19.1 on Sunday, and Frost had two points Sunday in 15.9, per NHL data. Conroy's problem isn't interest. It's that he has to retain money on the player he wants gone to sell the one he doesn't. File under: Cap crunch.

8. Pittsburgh is selling the middle of its lineup. Friedman, Saturday night: the Penguins will move a veteran forward for picks or prospects to get young players ice time. Nobody was named. Rust is 34, signed through 2027-28 at $5.125 million with no trade protection; Rakell runs through 2027-28 at $5 million with an eight-team no-trade list. Grade: Reported.

The read: Rakell hasn't had a point in seven straight games at about 20 minutes a night, and Rust has three goals in six, per NHL data. Pittsburgh is 1-3-1 in its last five at minus-9. The one with no clause and the hot stick is the one that goes. File under: Trade winds.

9. Norris's minutes are the real Sabres rumor. Fairburn had him as Buffalo's most likely early trade candidate, after a stint on the fourth line, with a $7.95 million cap hit that runs three more seasons past this one and a 10-team no-trade list. Grade: Rumbling.

What the numbers say: Norris was at 16.3, 16.5 and 16.7 minutes to open the season, then 11.4 and 11.9 on Oct. 12 and 13, then 14.8 and 14.5, per NHL data. A usage chart like that is a GM telling the league a player is available before he's told the player.

10. Nikishin is losing the staring contest. Friedman had him losing leverage once the season started. Carolina wants two firsts or the equivalent, St. Louis has been the most interested team, and the Rangers got close before the contract talk fell apart around $9 million. Grade: Rumbling.

The read: Carolina is 4-1 in its last five at plus-8, 5-1 on the road and killing penalties at 91.4 percent, per NHL data. Nobody in Raleigh needs to blink. A one-year deal that kicks the can is the likeliest ending, and the Blues keep their firsts.

11. The Rangers' chain reaction. Friedman doesn't think Hellebuyck goes to New York, but whatever Drury does about his net could set one off. Shesterkin is done for the year; the Room covered what that means. Grade: Reported.

The read: Garand is at .927 through six games, per NHL data, and that buys Drury time. The chain reaction, if it comes, is a three-way built around Luukkonen, and those die on the phone more often than they live.

12. Florida is a spectator, and that's a good week. The Panthers aren't on Friedman's Hellebuyck list and shouldn't be. Markstrom and Gudas are targeting Wednesday in Ottawa, Schwindt came up Monday with Lafferty going back to Charlotte, and the cats scored 18 goals in three straight wins. Pabs has the status board.

The read: Florida's problem is a penalty kill at 80.6 percent, per NHL data, not the net, and the cap sheet keeps Zito out of the Hellebuyck room anyway. The best rumor week in Sunrise is one with no rumors. File under: Cap crunch.

13. Housekeeping. Buccigross also guessed seven years at $10 million for Edvinsson. That's a studio number, Noise on the figure, and Horcoff said last week Edvinsson isn't for sale. Miroshnichenko has several teams monitoring him and is no longer waiver-exempt; he's played 10.0 and 12.6 minutes in two games, per NHL data.

Hellebuyck has forfeited close to 10 percent of his $7.5 million salary, and neither side wants a buyout. See item 1. It always comes back to item 1.