Horcoff says Edvinsson isn't for sale, and I believe him

I'd take Shawn Horcoff at his word on this one. A GM who wanted to move Simon Edvinsson would be saying he'll listen. Horcoff said the opposite, three different ways, on the record.

"I have zero interest in trading Simon Edvinsson," Detroit's interim GM said Wednesday. "Not something I'm entertaining. We want to sign him."

The read: that's the top of the grading scale, and it outranks everything that came before it. The trade talk isn't dead, but it just lost its best argument.

How we got here

Edvinsson is a 23-year-old restricted free agent coming off his entry-level deal. He went sixth overall in 2021 and put up 9 goals and 25 points in 72 games last season. Camp ended without a contract, he went home to Sweden, and he's since come back to North America to train.

Then the smoke started. Friedman floated on Oct. 3 that Edvinsson would prefer a trade over the stalemate. LeBrun followed with at least 10 teams asking about him, Boston among them. Both of those were Reported, and both were fair to take seriously while Detroit stayed quiet.

Horcoff isn't quiet anymore. He also said he's in regular contact with Edvinsson's camp and open-minded on contract options. That's the language of a team trying to close a deal, not shop one.

File under: Extension watch.

What the numbers say

Detroit can't afford to lose this standoff, and its own ice time says so. Moritz Seider is averaging 25.1 minutes a night through six games, per NHL data, and he logged 29:36 on Oct. 10. That same night, Axel Sandin-Pellikka got 8:48.

That's a blue line leaning on one guy. The penalty kill is at 66.7 percent through six games by our count, and the Wings are 1-3-2. Small sample, but it's the sample Horcoff has to live with.

They also just handed Alex DeBrincat seven years and $91 million. The DeBrincat extension tells you this front office is still building around its own players. Trading a 23-year-old No. 6 pick in October would be a strange next move.

The clock

The real deadline is Dec. 1. If Edvinsson isn't signed by then, he can't play in the NHL this season. That's the leverage on both sides, and it's why I expect this one to end in late November with a handshake.

The Panthers item

Horcoff called Dylan Larkin's trade request "status quo." Florida was on Larkin's original list, and with Aleksander Barkov on injured reserve, the dots are easy to connect from Sunrise.

Easy to connect isn't the same as doable. Bill Zito's cupboard of tradeable futures is thin, and Detroit isn't giving a centre away. I'd treat any Larkin-to-Florida chatter as noise until a name I trust attaches to it.

File under: Trade winds.

The call

Edvinsson signs with Detroit before Dec. 1, and the 10 teams who called go back to their own problems. The price is Marcus's department. The timing is mine, and I'd bet on the week of American Thanksgiving.