Detroit's new Larkin price points at Washington, not Florida

Detroit stopped asking for a younger Dylan Larkin. Now it wants a pile of pieces instead. That's the Red Wings admitting nobody has a second Larkin lying around, and it moves this market toward the one contender with a full prospect shelf.

1. The ask changed shape. Darren Dreger said Thursday that Detroit wants three or four pieces, and two of them have to be A-quality prospects. The rest of the ask is a top-nine forward and a first-round pick. A few weeks ago the line around the league was that Detroit wanted "a younger version of Larkin" back. Grade: Reported.

The read: Quantity instead of a mirror image is a seller giving ground. Asking for a top-nine forward instead of a top-six one is more ground. File under: Trade winds.

2. What the numbers say: Detroit needs bodies. The Red Wings are 2-1-2 in their last five, and their penalty kill is working at 69.6 percent through seven games, per NHL data. Larkin's back and eating 21.3 minutes a night, with three points in five games. One great center isn't fixing a kill like that. Four useful players might.

3. Washington has the shelf. Ilya Protas, Cole Hutson and Lynden Lakovic are exactly the kind of prospects this ask is written for. The Capitals also have NHL forwards who could cover the top-nine piece, and they're on Larkin's list.

The catch is the same one from September. Washington had about $75,000 in cap space then, and Larkin carries $8.7 million a year through 2030-31.

The read: Washington is the best fit on paper and the hardest fit on the cap sheet. If Detroit keeps some of the money, this is the deal.

4. Tampa can get close, not all the way. Nobody has reported talks with the Lightning. I'm handicapping here.

Sam O'Reilly and Gage Goncalves would cover one prospect and the forward, and Tampa holds first-rounders in two of the next three drafts. That still leaves them one A prospect short. Their power play is at 7.4 percent through seven games, per NHL data, which is a loud argument for a center who can run one.

The read: I have Tampa second, behind Washington. An in-state rival landing Larkin would ruin a lot of Pabs' winter.

5. Florida is out, and was already. Two A prospects is a bar the Panthers can't clear. They were on Larkin's original short list, but they were over the cap in September and the picks that could front a package are spent. Marcus showed why Barkov's LTIR money buys about $4 million, not a Larkin.

The read: Florida's help at center comes from inside the room this year. File under: Cap crunch.

6. Montreal is still the easy answer. The executive line Frank Seravalli floated earlier this month still holds: Larkin "could end this saga tomorrow" if he put the Canadiens on his list. He hasn't. Canadian teams are off it, so that takes him changing his mind. Grade: Reported.

The read: Montreal has the prospects and a building that chanted his name. The only person keeping that door shut is Larkin.

Housekeeping: Every week the asking price slips is a week Detroit didn't find a buyer at the previous one. Larkin's return to the lineup hasn't changed his preference for a trade, either.

My call: Larkin is moved before Feb. 1, to Washington, with Detroit keeping part of the money. The new ask makes that trade look like the one Detroit wants to make.