The Ferda Room: Kucherov asks out, Larkin walks out, Florida wins out

Nikita Kucherov asked out of Tampa on Friday, told his teammates on the plane to Nashville, and had three assists Saturday in a game the Lightning blew three times. Dylan Larkin spent the same week suspended for refusing to play in Detroit. Florida won all three of its games and scored 13 goals.

The room agrees Tampa holds the hammer. It splits on whether Julien BriseBois should swing it before March.

The big one: Kucherov wants out

Marcus Lind — What the numbers say

The number that isn't in the headline is $2.75 million. That's Tampa's cap space as of Friday, hours before the request landed, and I walked the whole sheet that morning. No deadline money, no 2027 first-round pick. This was always a July sheet.

Kucherov is in the final year at a $9.5 million cap hit, with 18 points in 13 games at 21.0 minutes a night, per NHL data. Brandon Hagel is next at 16. Nothing in the production lowers the price for a team that budgeted $13 million and has heard bigger numbers floated.

The request doesn't change the math. It changes who's negotiating against the clock, and for once it isn't the GM.

Gord Tremblay — Where it goes from here

It broke Friday night, the GM answered on the record within hours, and Friedman said Saturday he couldn't find out who's on the 10-team list. Treat the Toronto and Montreal talk as Rumbling. Treat "unequivocally no intention" as what it is: a position, not a promise.

The read: nothing happens before the deadline. Tampa is 8-3-2 and 6-0-0 at home, by our count, and a GM in that spot doesn't sell in November. If he moves, it's deadline week, to a contender with a young center to send back. Smoke, not fire, until February.

Sully — The grade and the grievance

Look, he told his teammates he's leaving on the team flight. Nothing says "I'm with you boys" like making the announcement at 30,000 feet with the seatbelt sign on.

Then Saturday happened. Tampa led three times in Nashville and lost in a shootout to Steven Stamkos, who tied it on the power play late. The old captain didn't just show up to the breakup. He brought a casserole.

Grade: A for the leverage, D for the Lightning's week. And to the Panthers fans already texting me about a Kucherov trade across Alligator Alley: no. Tampa would sooner trade him to the sun.

Gord Tremblay — Three from the notebook

1. The $15 million offer. Pagnotta has Tampa putting four years at $15 million a season in front of Kucherov and getting a no. Grade: Smoke, one source, and Tampa hasn't said a word about it. The read: if true, the gap isn't about money anymore, which is worse for the Lightning than any number.

2. The Larkin market is four teams and one ask. LeBrun has Minnesota, Carolina, Utah and Washington showing concrete interest, and Dreger has Detroit's price at two A-level prospects, a top-nine NHL forward and a first. Grade: Reported. The read: that's a Minnesota price, and only Minnesota is paying it.

3. Horcoff is on the record, and he's not in a hurry. The interim GM said Detroit is "prepared to wait as long as necessary" and that a deal gets easier if Larkin expands his 10-team list, which has no Canadian club on it. Grade: On the record.

The read: Larkin loses $41,237 a day and Detroit loses nothing but headlines. The side with the salary blinks. Nov. 10 still holds.

Marcus Lind — The number

The number: .877. That's Andrei Vasilevskiy's save percentage through 10 starts, per NHL data, after 29 saves on 33 shots on Saturday. His last five starts are at .870. He carries the same $9.5 million cap hit as Kucherov, with two years left after this one.

The Kucherov request is Tampa's second-biggest contract problem. The winger's deal ends. The goalie's doesn't.

Sign him now / Wait: Nikita Kucherov

• Sign him now: the reported four years at $15 million is 13.2 percent of next year's $113.5 million ceiling for the reigning MVP, and the share falls every year after. Tampa has $29.8 million opening in July. If he'd take it, you take it.

• Wait: he's told you he won't, and that's the end of the sign-now case. A player who asks out in October isn't choosing between your offer and a better one. He's choosing the door. Chasing a player who's already leaving is how you end up paying a 37-year-old $15 million.

• My call: wait, and keep him through the deadline. A 6-0 home team doesn't sell in November, and a March rental brings back the picks Tampa doesn't have. The $29.8 million gets spent in July either way, on someone who wants to be there.

Sully — The grievance

Look, the bad news first. I said Edmonton gives up five this week. The Oilers allowed four, then zero, then zero, and Tristan Jarry is at .922 over his last five starts, per NHL data. I'd like the record to show I was early. I was just early to the wrong house.

Now the real grievance, and it's wearing a Lightning sweater. Vasilevskiy makes $9.5 million, same as the guy who asked out, and he's stopping .877. Saturday night his team scored four goals for him and he gave up four on 33 shots. That's not a goalie, that's a toll booth with a nicer mask.

Tampa led three separate times in Nashville, and lost. Three leads is a lot of leads. The Bruins only need one to blow it, and I say that as a lifelong Bruins fan with a cardiologist on speed dial.

Grade: D-minus. The minus is for the shootout, which Stamkos won, because of course he did. Buddy, I'm begging you, Andrei, one Saturday at .920. You used to do it in May.

Kept off the sheet: Ian Cole, Chicago. Fourteen games, 18.4 minutes a night, zero points, per NHL data. He's in Sunrise on Wednesday, so Pabs gets to watch a man play 18 minutes and leave no evidence he was there.

Fight of the week stays with Imama over Bauer, Friday in Sunrise, and I already gave the verdict. The NHL got one real fight this week and the Panthers had it.

Tommy Kessler — Campus minute

Michigan went into Columbus 7-0-0 and ranked No. 1 in the USCHO poll, and Ohio State beat the Wolverines 5-2 on Saturday. That's the first loss for the best team in the country, in a rivalry barn, and Monday's poll gets interesting.

The Hockey East weekend belongs to BU. The Terriers routed Maine 7-2 on Friday, scoring on their first three shots, then survived 3-2 in overtime on Saturday to sit alone atop the league at 11 points. Vermont swept New Hampshire and is second at nine.

Boston College and Northeastern split two overtime games at Conte, so the Eagles' NPI repair got half done. Wisconsin outscored Notre Dame 16-2, Michigan State won 5-3 at North Dakota, and Minnesota tied Penn State 1-1 before winning 4-3 in overtime, which cost me a lock.

The prospect the NHL crowd should know is still Landon DuPont, the Michigan freshman with a Central Scouting A rating and six assists in his first six games. Saturday was the program's first loss. Watch how a 17-year-old answers it.

Meg Halloran — The W minute

USA Hockey named 25 for Denmark and it's the Olympic room again: 20 gold medalists, 24 PWHL players, and one college kid, Ohio State's Joy Dunne. Then the Americans shut out Canada 4-0 in Plymouth, a few days after Canada's kids won 5-3 in Windsor. Canada went 0-for-6 on the power play in the rematch.

On campus, Ohio State swept Bemidji State 4-1 and 5-1, and Northeastern won 8-1 and 4-2 at BU.

The W read: the U.S. picked experience over Dunne's classmates, then showed why. The Worlds open Friday in Denmark with the Americans against Switzerland, and Canada's power play has five days to find a goal.

Pabs — The Panthers table

Three games, three wins, 13 goals. The cats beat Chicago 3-2 on Lars Eller's late winner, then put five on Winnipeg in Winnipeg and five more on Winnipeg in Sunrise, with Anton Lundell's hat trick on Friday. Seth Jones finished October with 18 points, a Panthers record for a defenseman.

Here's the number: the power play is at 34.9 percent over the last 10 games, per NHL data, after a start that had it 1-for-28. Florida is 8-4-2 with 18 points, by our count, level with Tampa with one more game played. Barkov is about four weeks out, Marchand about three, Markstrom close.

In Estero, the Everblades are 5-1 and first in the South after a split in Greenville: a 5-4 loss Friday, then Cam Johnson's 21-save shutout in a 2-0 win Saturday. Wednesday's trip to Orlando was postponed.

The week ahead: Detroit on Monday at 7, Chicago on Wednesday at 7:30, then Washington on Saturday at 12:30 and Boston on Sunday at 1.

• Marcus: Jones is at 24.9 minutes a night with 18 points, per NHL data, on a sheet where Barkov's return is a $2.56 million bill. The captain comes back, three call-ups go down, and Jones's minutes are the reason Florida can wait.

• Gord: Florida sits on Larkin's 10-team list and isn't one of the four teams pushing, which squares with the money. The read: Detroit walks into Sunrise on Monday with its best center at home and its interim GM taking calls. That's a Canadian-market week for an American team.

• Sully: Sam Bennett. Five straight games without a point, 17.7 minutes a night, six points in 14, per NHL data. Buddy, I'm begging you, the Winnipeg games were a buffet and you left with a napkin.

• Kessler: Sandis Vilmanis played 16:06 on Friday, up 3.5 minutes from Tuesday, per NHL data, a week after his first goal of the season in Chicago. The staff is handing him real minutes while the middle heals. What he does with them before Barkov is back decides whether he keeps them after.

The Room's locks

Last week's calls, with the receipts:

• Pabs: right. Florida beat Winnipeg 5-1 on Tuesday and 5-2 on Friday.

• Marcus: right. Connor Hellebuyck started and won in Dallas on Tuesday, and he's 2-0 with a .923 for New Jersey, per NHL data.

• Gord: right. Dylan Larkin is still a Red Wing. He's a suspended one, but the sweater hasn't changed.

• Sully: wrong. Edmonton allowed four, zero and zero. Two shutouts for Jarry.

• Kessler: wrong. Minnesota and Penn State tied 1-1 on Friday at Mariucci. The Gophers won Saturday, which was not the call.

• Meg: right. Ohio State beat Bemidji State 4-1 and 5-1.

Season records: Pabs 3-2 · Marcus 4-1 · Gord 5-0 · Sully 2-3 · Kessler 3-2 · Meg 2-3.

And this week's calls:

• Pabs: Florida sweeps the home week, Detroit on Monday and Chicago on Wednesday.

• Marcus: Minnesota announces Quinn Hughes's extension before next Sunday.

• Gord: Larkin is traded this week, and it's to Minnesota.

• Sully: McDavid's point streak ends this week. Everything ends. Ask Winnipeg.

• Kessler: Michigan is not No. 1 in Monday's USCHO poll.

• Meg: The U.S. beats Switzerland in its Worlds opener.

Where they split

The week's real disagreement is whether Tampa should move Kucherov this season. It's Marcus against Sully.

• Marcus: No. A 6-0 home team doesn't sell in November and a rental fetches the most in March. Hold him, win with him, and take the picks at the deadline if the answer is still no.

• Sully: Yes, tonight. You don't keep a guy who's already got his coat on. Every week you wait, the buyers watch Vasilevskiy and knock a pick off the price.

Last word: Meg Halloran

The Worlds start Friday, and the two teams that matter just played twice in a week, which is more honest than any poll. Canada's kids scored first. The Americans answered with a shutout and the roster that won in Milan.

Eight straight for the U.S., and it's still the best rivalry in the sport. Denmark tells us whether that's a streak or a changing of the guard. I'd bet streak.