Calgary should pay Morgan Frost now, and stop at four years

The number: $4.375 million. That's what Morgan Frost costs the Flames this season, the last year of a two-year deal, and it's the cheapest he will ever be again. Calgary should pay him now, at four years, before another 20-goal season makes the bill a lot less polite.

Craig Conroy and Frost's agent, Darren Ferris, had their first talk on Monday. The interest is mutual, and both sides want a deal done this season. Conroy has also said the hard part is working out what a center costs in a market where every number is moving up.

That's the right question, and the answer depends on which Frost you're pricing.

Two seasons, two prices

Last season's Frost was the best version yet: a career-high 22 goals and 43 points in 82 games, his first full year in Calgary. This season's Frost is fine, not loud. He has 3 goals and 7 points in 11 games and is averaging 15.3 minutes a night, per NHL data.

He's also won 68 of 127 faceoffs, 53.5 percent, by our count.

His ice time has bounced between 12.3 and 17.9 minutes. That's a coach who trusts him on draws and on the power play, where he got 6.1 minutes in Monday's 5-2 win over Toronto, but who hasn't handed him the top-line job. A team pays a second-line center like a second-line center, and that's what he has been in October.

The Flames are 5-6-0 after four straight wins, with a 30.0 percent power play, per NHL data. They have $14.3 million in cap space this season and $43.7 million next summer with 16 players signed, per the cap sites. Money is not the problem. Getting the number right is.

The comparables

The floor is Noah Cates, who signed for four years at $4 million with Philadelphia in June 2025. He was a 26-year-old winger coming off 37 points, the same point total Frost had that season. One projection model has Frost at four years and about $6.29 million, which prices in the 22 goals and a ceiling that keeps climbing.

The ceiling is $104 million this season and projected at $113.5 million next season. A raise that big is what makes Frost's camp patient, because every team's space grows at the same time.

The price: four years at $5.25 million a season, by my comparables. That's about 4.6 percent of next season's projected ceiling. It sits below the model because this season's pace and his minutes don't yet say top-line center, and above Cates because Frost plays the middle and wins draws.

Sign him now / Wait

• Sign him now: about $5.25 million for four years buys a 27-year-old center through his prime, with the raise tied to the ceiling and not to a hot July market.

• Wait: if he gets back to 22 goals, the price heads toward the projection, and as a UFA he picks the team. If he stays at a 15-minute role, Calgary saves a little and still has to replace a center.

• My call: sign him now. The risk in waiting is bigger than the discount.

What I'd watch: term. Four years is a fair bet on a 27-year-old. A fifth year, at 32, is where a fair deal turns into Calgary's problem.