Canada kept Russia's flag out of Edmonton, not necessarily its kids

Ottawa just did what the IIHF said it wanted to do and couldn't. Russia won its case in Lausanne last Friday, and four days later the country hosting the first tournament on Russia's comeback tour said the team isn't getting in. The flag is out of Edmonton. The kids might not be, and that's the fight nobody has started yet.

Here's what's on the record. Mark Carney was asked at the Commonwealth summit on Tuesday whether Russian players would get visas for the World Juniors. His answer left no room.

"So if you're asking specifically about the world juniors, the Russians will not be there," Carney said.

He tied it to the war, said it covers Belarus too, and added a line aimed at Europe: "We respect the decisions of the Finns, the Czechs, the Swedes, other nations, but this is a decision we take on our own."

Read the fine print

The government's written statement is where it gets interesting. Ottawa will use its immigration powers to keep out Russian and Belarusian athletes and officials who compete under their national symbols. Entry gets assessed case by case. And athletes competing as neutrals could still take part in events Canada hosts.

That's the trapdoor. The ban is on the crest, not the passport. If the IIHF decides to comply with the court by entering Russia's juniors as neutrals, in plain sweaters with no anthem, Canada's own statement doesn't shut the door on them. I'd treat that as the most likely next move from Zurich, not a sure one.

The read: Ottawa has settled where Russia plays. It hasn't settled who.

Hockey Canada is in the middle

Hockey Canada thanked the government and says its board meets this week on next steps. Earlier, it said it shared the IIHF's disappointment with the ruling and wanted "more clarity in the coming days." It also confirmed the tournament gets no federal funding, which is a polite way of saying Ottawa's leverage here is the border, not the cheque.

Alberta's premier, Danielle Smith, had said the province would comply with the court's ruling. Now the province and the country are on opposite sides of a tournament both are hosting. That's a very Alberta-and-Ottawa way to spend a December.

Meanwhile the boycott keeps growing. Sweden, Finland, Czechia and Latvia have all said they won't face Russia. Norway's federation has said it could be the team dropped from the World Juniors to make room.

So the IIHF's options are thin: a tournament without Russia that defies the court, a neutral team that a good chunk of the field may still refuse to play, or a new host with less than two months' notice.

What the numbers say

The line Ottawa drew is about the flag, and the NHL shows why. Matvei Michkov has 10 goals in 17 games for the Flyers this season, per NHL data, on 15.9 minutes a night. He'll play in Canadian rinks all winter and nobody will check his visa. Russian hockey players aren't banned from Canada. Russia's national team is.

File under: Team Canada / Board room.

The World Juniors open Dec. 26 in Edmonton and Red Deer. That's 52 days for the IIHF to pick which of its own rules it would rather break. My guess is the neutral route, and a few more federations announcing they won't play that either.