Buffalo's goalies keep raising Connor Hellebuyck's price

Every night Buffalo's goalies play, Connor Hellebuyck gets more expensive, and every night Winnipeg wins without him, the price climbs again. That's the box the Sabres are standing in, and Monday against Florida made it smaller.

Start with where it sits. Hellebuyck is still suspended for not reporting to camp, and he still wants out. Friedman said last week that Buffalo is a place Hellebuyck would accept, and added, "We all know they were pretty close to getting him." Grade: Reported.

Monday in Buffalo

Colten Ellis gave up two goals he'd like back against the Panthers and got the hook. Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen came on, and the Sabres won 5-3 anyway. With Alex Lyon hurt to start the season, that's a three-man rotation with nobody actually holding the job.

Within a day, the "this move points to a Hellebuyck trade" pieces were up. None of them had an insider's name attached. Grade: Noise. The goaltending is a real problem, but the idea that one pulled goalie suddenly moves a $59.5 million contract is not.

What the numbers say

Luukkonen is at .850 through five games and .839 over his last five starts, per NHL data. Ellis is at .864 through three. Buffalo's penalty kill is at 60.9 percent, and the Sabres have seven points from seven games.

Now Winnipeg. The Jets have nine points from six games and are 4-1 in their last five. Stuart Skinner is at .917 through four starts, and the penalty kill is at 92.3 percent. Six games is a small sample, but it's also all the evidence a general manager needs to keep declining a soft offer.

The read

The leverage flipped, and it flipped quickly.

In June, Buffalo had the No. 4 pick to dangle and Winnipeg had a goalie who wanted out. Now Winnipeg is winning, and Buffalo has a crease running at .850 and a .500 start. The Jets don't have to sell anything, and the Sabres are starting to look like a team that has to buy.

There's still a wrinkle nobody has solved. The summer talks reportedly snagged because Luukkonen has Winnipeg on his no-trade list. Any deal that sends him the other way needs a third team or a different goalie, and either option costs Buffalo more.

I said Monday he plays for Winnipeg before he plays for anyone else. I'm keeping that call, with one edit. If he does move, it's Buffalo, and it costs more than the fourth pick would have in June. File under: Trade winds.

Florida, for the record, is out of this one. The Panthers' June interest faded once they landed Brady Tkachuk and Jacob Markstrom.