Panthers need the power play to bail them out in Boston

This is a tired, thin Panthers team walking into a building where Boston has been very good. I still think the cats have a path, and it runs through the power play, because that's the one place Florida is clearly better than the Bruins right now.

Florida went 1-for-5 with the man advantage in Washington on Saturday and lost 4-3. Less than a day later, the same unit gets a Boston penalty kill that's working at 76.8% this season, per NHL data. Florida's power play is at 23.7%. That gap is the game.

The lineup card:

Expected, not confirmed. Florida may recall a forward from Charlotte before puck drop.

• Brady Tkachuk – Sam Bennett – Matthew Tkachuk
• Carter Verhaeghe – Sam Reinhart – Lars Eller
• Eetu Luostarinen – Cole Schwindt – Cole Reinhardt
• Bokondji Imama – Garnet Hathaway
• Gustav Forsling – Aaron Ekblad
• Niko Mikkola – Seth Jones
• Dmitry Kulikov – Uvis Balinskis
• Radko Gudas, the seventh defenseman

That's 11 forwards and seven D unless a call-up lands. Jacob Markstrom is the expected starter, with Akira Schmid as the backup.

Boston is expected to go JJ Peterka – Pavel Zacha – David Pastrnak, Michael Eyssimont – Fraser Minten – Morgan Geekie, Casey Mittelstadt – Elias Lindholm – Marat Khusnutdinov and Tanner Jeannot – Sean Kuraly – Mark Kastelic.

The pairs are Hampus Lindholm – Charlie McAvoy, Nikita Zadorov – Will Borgen and Frederic Brunet – Mason Lohrei. Jeremy Swayman is the expected starter, with Michael DiPietro backing up. Connor Clifton and Jonathan Aspirot are the expected scratches.

Who's out

Sandis Vilmanis (upper body) played 2.1 minutes Saturday before Tom Wilson's boarding major ended his day, and he won't play. Maurice said the team "may not know the severity" until he's seen at home. Anton Lundell (undisclosed) missed Saturday and is questionable.

Aleksander Barkov and Brad Marchand (both knee) are on the trip for morning skates, not games. Jonah Gadjovich (neck) is out.

Boston lost James Hagens (back) to injured reserve Saturday, and Matthew Poitras (upper body) is out too. Eyssimont comes up from Providence and lands on the second line.

Boston's form

The Bruins are 12-4-1 with three straight wins, and they're 11-0-0 when they score three goals. Their last five are 3-2-0 at plus-1, by our count. Florida's last five are also 3-2-0, but at plus-6.

Pastrnak has 22 points and a three-game point streak. Zacha has one going too.

Neither starter is hot. Swayman is at .913 for the season but .878 over his last five starts, per NHL data. Markstrom's last five sit at .864.

Head-to-head

This is the first of four meetings. Florida swept last season's series 3-0 and has won all three playoff series between these teams, including 2023 and 2024. Boston hasn't forgotten, and neither have we.

The one matchup:

Florida's power play against Boston's kill. Matthew Tkachuk played 23.9 minutes Saturday, up 8.7 from Wednesday, and Reinhart played 24.8, up 6.7, per NHL data. Those legs will be heavy at 1 p.m.

The power play is where heavy legs still win, because the puck does the skating. Reinhart has a point in six straight, by our count. Tkachuk has 21 assists, and Brady Tkachuk has 10 goals, two of them Saturday.

Pabs' read:

Boston is fresher and healthier, and Florida is 0-3 against the Atlantic. I'd still take the cats if they draw three power plays and cash one. If it's five-on-five for 60 minutes with 11 forwards on a back-to-back, it's a long afternoon. My call: Panthers 4, Bruins 3.

The books disagree. DraftKings has Boston at -142 and Florida at +120, total 6.5, and Florida is 6-10 against the puck line this season, by our count. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

How to watch

Puck drop is 1 p.m. ET at TD Garden. NHL Network has it nationally, Scripps Sports in the Panthers' market and NESN in Boston. Panthers+ streams it, and WQAM has the radio call.