Gord's Notebook: Hellebuyck sits out Winnipeg, Chicago shops Florida's first

A week ago the question in Winnipeg was how long Scott Arniel had. Now the Jets have won three straight, and the goalie they traded has been told he can't play in their building Tuesday. My read: that's the Canadian night of the week, and the man at the centre of it won't dress.

1. New Jersey is sitting Hellebuyck in Winnipeg, and the GM blamed math. Sunny Mehta cited "a reduction in our expected win probability." Hellebuyck said he was disappointed not to "face the music" and called it "out of my hands." Grade: On the record.

The read: He's 5-0 with a 1.96 and a .913 in New Jersey, per NHL data. Nothing in that line lowers a win probability. The Devils decided a hostile building wasn't worth the risk. Say that instead. File under: Board room.

2. The Jets found a pulse the same week. Sunday's 4-3 over Tampa came on a Scheifele 5-on-3 goal with 1.6 seconds left. A week ago Friedman said everyone in Winnipeg saw "the writing on the wall if it doesn't change quick." Grade: On the record.

The read: It changed. The Jets are 7-8-3 and 3-2 in their last five, by our count, with the kill still at 71.7 percent. The seat cooled; it isn't fixed. File under: Hot seat.

3. Chicago put two other teams' first-round picks on the table. Friedman has the Blackhawks "very active," with the 2027 firsts that belonged to Florida and Edmonton, plus their own and two seconds, in play. Seravalli's version is a shoot-first winger with size: Tippett, Miroshnichenko, Voronkov, Rakell, O'Connor. Teravainen and Greenway are available going out. Grade: Reported.

The read: Greenway has a 15-game pointless streak at 13.3 minutes, per NHL data. Nobody is taking him as an asset. Chicago is 4-13-1 at minus-37. The picks are the deal. File under: Trade winds.

4. The Panthers item is the pick Zito doesn't own anymore. Florida's 2027 first, the one that went to Chicago in the Seth Jones trade, is being shopped by a team that needs help today. Florida went 1-3 this week and sits at 20 points through 18 games, by our count. Grade: Reported.

The read: Every Panthers loss raises the price of a pick on somebody else's table. Barkov and Marchand travelling doesn't mean they're playing; Pabs has the report. The cheapest insurance is winning in Columbus. File under: Trade winds.

5. Larkin has become a staring contest. Friedman used the phrase. Detroit asked him to add teams to his 10-team list; he refused. Johnston says Shawn Horcoff, an interim GM trying to earn the job, is waiting for a home run the 10 teams won't offer. LeBrun has Utah on the list, waiting for the price to drop. Grade: Reported.

The read: Detroit is 1-4 in its last five with a 69.0 percent kill, per NHL data. The leverage I handed Minnesota two weeks ago drifted west. Armstrong can wait. Horcoff can't. File under: Trade winds.

6. Edvinsson's price has a number, and it's a Dec. 1 number. Dreger says Boston would love him and he could seek $9 million a year, with Detroit also interested in San Jose's Michael Misa. Johnston has the Sharks "very much in." Both expect nothing to move until the RFA signing deadline. Grade: Reported.

The read: A $9 million ask from a player with zero games this season isn't a valuation. It's an agent pricing a deadline 22 days out. San Jose has lost five straight and is shopping anyway. Grier has decided which problem he can fix. File under: Extension watch.

7. Kucherov's agent said "beyond repair." Kucherov scored the overtime winner. Dan Milstein said talks with BriseBois went "horribly wrong" and his client should move on. Friedman says it isn't a ploy. BriseBois hasn't responded. LeBrun floated Utah as a top destination for pending free agents. Grade: On the record on the agent; Rumbling on Utah.

The read: He has 22 points in 17 games, per NHL data, and Tampa went 3-1 this week with a 31.3 percent power play, by our count. Nobody moves that player in November. This is a June file, and everybody writing it knows. File under: Trade winds.

8. Pittsburgh is about to sell, and Rust is the chip. Friedman says it could happen "pretty quickly," with Dubas wanting high picks or NHL-ready prospects for Rakell and Rust. Rust is the one without trade protection. Dreger adds that Malkin submits a three-team list in January and Guerin is interested at the right price. Grade: Reported.

The read: Rakell has 10 points in 18 games at 19.8 minutes, per NHL data. Rust has five in seven. Karlsson's $10 million is a March conversation. A split in California didn't change Dubas's mind. File under: Trade winds.

9. What the numbers say: Binnington is a rumour with an .849. Friedman has heard rumblings. He's 33, a UFA in July at $6 million, and he's lost the net to Joel Hofer. Our archive has him at 1-3-1 with an .849 in five starts, per NHL data. Hofer is at .919.

The read: No contender trades for an .849 in November. This moves only if a starter somewhere goes down. Toronto, see item 11, is where that call gets made from. File under: Trade winds.

10. Montreal's problem is too many good young players. Friedman says the Canadiens expect Michael Hage and Alexander Zharovsky available by season's end, and both names have come up in trade talks. Milstein, asked about Montreal adding a superstar: "I honestly have no idea about Kucherov." Grade: Reported on the prospects; Smoke on the rest.

The read: Montreal is 4-0-1 in its last five, per NHL data, and Fowler is at .935 over his last five starts. The power play is still 15.4 percent. Hughes has assets and no urgency, the strongest spot a GM can trade from. File under: Board room.

11. Toronto has a goalie problem in November, so Toronto has a rumour problem. Five losses in six, a 4-0 loss to New Jersey on Sunday, Rielly out with a lower-body injury. Bobrovsky is 3-7-2 at .886 and .862 over his last five starts, per NHL data. Grade: On the record.

The read: The Leafs are 4-6 at home, by our count. Tavares coming back fixes the zone time, not the .862. A Canadian market with a goalie question finds a goalie rumour by Friday. File under: Hot seat.

12. Team Canada built a committee, and look at the names. Dreger says Hockey Canada formed an advisory group of Yzerman, Armstrong, Treliving and Doan to help pick a GM for the 2028 World Cup. His candidates: Nill, Dubas, Sweeney and BriseBois. Grade: Reported.

The read: Dubas is selling his roster. BriseBois's best player just asked out. Nill is the adult in the room, and the adult usually gets it. File under: Team Canada.

13. The World Juniors replaced a team that can get visas with one that can't. Norway said Sunday it has been removed from the tournament in Edmonton and Red Deer, with Russia taking its place in Canada's group. Carney has said Russia "will not be allowed to come." Grade: On the record.

The read: Four weeks out, Canada's group has a team that isn't getting into the country. Someone blinks. It won't be Ottawa. File under: Team Canada.

14. Housekeeping. The GMs meet Tuesday in Toronto. Price, Bergeron, Rinne, Keith Tkachuk, Cindy Curley and Brian Burke go into the Hall tonight. Milstein is also working with Washington to move Miroshnichenko, who has one point in three games at 11.1 minutes, per NHL data. Tuesday in Winnipeg, see item 1.