The Devils benched an unbeaten goalie to protect their win probability
New Jersey says Connor Hellebuyck playing in Winnipeg on Tuesday would hurt its odds. His 5-0 record says the spreadsheet needs a nap.
Look, I've read a lot of front-office statements. This is the first one that sounded like a calculator wrote it after getting dumped.
The Devils said Sunday that Connor Hellebuyck won't play Tuesday in Winnipeg, his first trip back since the Jets moved him to New Jersey last month. GM Sunny Mehta said the club "debated at length" and decided that playing him "would potentially give us a reduction in our expected win probability."
Expected win probability, on a goalie who hasn't lost a single game since he showed up in New Jersey.
Here's the receipt. Hellebuyck is 5-0 with a 1.96 goals-against and a .913 save percentage in five starts, with a shutout, per NHL data.
Jake Allen, the only other Devils goalie with a start, is 6-3 with an .881. Over his last five starts, Allen sits at .879. Small sample, sure. So is a first date, and you still know by the appetizers.
So the model looked at both goalies and decided the unbeaten one is the risk. I've seen better reads from a guy at a gas station picking his Powerball numbers off yesterday's Dunkin' receipt.
Mehta played poker for a living before hockey. Fine. This is the first time I've watched a poker player fold pocket aces because the other table might boo.
He also came out of Florida's front office with two Cup rings. Down there the organization wins championships and explains absolutely nothing to anybody. Up here he said something, and it was this. Grade on the statement: D.
The goalie wanted in. "Selfishly I want to play," Hellebuyck said. He also said, "I'm going to choose love." The team chose a spreadsheet. Grade on Hellebuyck: A.
Coach Sheldon Keefe said that when you zoom out, Hellebuyck is "not going to play every single game." True.
He's also not going to play the one game Manitoba bought tickets for. Lower-bowl seats went past $500 to boo a man who might not even dress. That's not a game anymore. That's a wedding where the groom sends a text.
And here's the funny part, the one that should've ended the meeting early. The Devils are 5-0 in their last five, plus-9, per NHL data. The Jets are 3-2 and minus-4 in theirs.
The math was going to be fine either way, because you had the better team and the hotter goalie, and you still pulled out the "what if they're mean to us" chart.
Bruins tax: in Boston, a guy asks for the net in the building that hates him, you hand him the net and turn the boos up on the scoreboard.
Buddy, I'm begging you, put the man in net and let Winnipeg get it out of its system. It's one game in November, not a merger.
At least one guy in the organization wants to face the room. The media availability after Tuesday's morning skate is happening because Hellebuyck asked for it.
My call: the Devils win Tuesday anyway, and that statement ends up the most-quoted thing a GM writes all season. I said what I said.
