Cap Check: Senators are full today, and Batherson's raise eats July

The number: 7-1-0. That's Ottawa's record when Linus Ullmark starts, by our count. The Senators are 3-5-1 when he doesn't. The $8.25 million goalie is the whole cap sheet right now, and he's on injured reserve.

Ottawa spent the summer turning Brady Tkachuk into picks, then spent the picks and the cap room before camp. The sheet that came out of it is full today, and it's built around a goalie who turns 34 in July. That's the team in one line, and it's a riskier build than the record suggests.

Where they sit today

The Senators are at $102.63 million against the $104 million ceiling, so about $1.4 million of room with 21 of 23 roster spots filled. The cap sites are about $2 million apart on that figure. Neither has Ottawa above $4 million.

There's no LTIR. One retained slot is used, $1 million of Joonas Korpisalo through next season. The Colin White buyout costs $875,000 this year and next. Forty-six of 50 contracts are spoken for, which is a lot for a team that likes to carry prospects.

Cap sheet: $1.4 million in space today · no LTIR · 1 of 3 retained slots used · 46 of 50 contracts · 21 of 23 roster spots · four players on injured reserve, all counting in full.

That last line is the problem. Ullmark ($8.25 million), William Eklund ($5.6 million), Andre Burakovsky ($5.5 million) and Warren Foegele ($3.5 million) all sit on regular IR. Regular IR gives you a roster spot, not cap relief. Ottawa is paying $22.85 million to players who aren't dressing, and nobody's close to a long-term designation.

Ullmark was back on the ice at the end of practice Tuesday after the strain he took against Florida on Oct. 21. Travis Green called it a step in the right direction.

Until he's in the net, Samuel Ersson (.880) and Jonas Johansson (.846) carry the team, per NHL data. Ullmark is at .945 with a 1.33 goals-against average in eight starts.

The three contracts that define the sheet

Best value: Drake Batherson, $4.975 million, this season only. He has nine goals and 18 points in 17 games on 17.7 minutes a night, per NHL data. That's tied with Tim Stützle for the team lead in goals at a little more than half Stützle's cap hit. Enjoy it. It's the last year at this price.

Worst value: Andre Burakovsky, $5.5 million, final year. Zero points in eight games, 11 minutes a night and three shots total, per NHL data. He came over from Chicago for a sixth-round pick, which tells you what the market thought of the contract.

The money comes off July 1, so it's a one-year tax, not a wound. But it's $5.5 million that could have been the sniper Steve Staios said he wanted.

The one that decides the future: Batherson's extension. Eight years, $86 million, $10.75 million a season from 2027-28 through 2034-35. About $30 million of it is signing bonuses. Full no-move for the first four years, then a modified no-trade. It was signed on the last day the old CBA allowed eight-year terms, and it runs until he's 37.

Here's the honest read. At 28, on a 71-point season, $10.75 million is the market for a first-line winger when the ceiling is $113.5 million. The AAV is fine. The term is the bet.

Years six through eight cover ages 35 to 37, and the bonus-heavy structure makes it nearly buyout-proof. Ottawa paid the premium to keep its own guy after Tkachuk asked out. That's a defensible reason to overpay on term. It's still an overpay on term.

The next two summers

Summer 2027 is the exhale. Burakovsky, Artem Zub ($4.6 million), Foegele, Michael Amadio ($2.6 million), Claude Giroux ($2 million) and Jonas Johansson all expire. Tyler Kleven and Philip Tomasino are restricted. Call it about $20 million coming off the books.

Then Batherson's number jumps by $5.775 million on the same day. The cap sites have roughly $84 million committed to 16 players next season against a $113.5 million ceiling. That's about $29 million of room, which sounds like a lot until you count the holes: two top-nine wingers, a right-side defenseman and a backup plan if Ersson's .880 is real.

Summer 2028 is the choke point. Thomas Chabot's $8 million deal ends. He's leading the team at 24.1 minutes a night, per NHL data, and he'll be 31 with Jake Sanderson signed at $8.05 million through 2031-32 on the same side. Fabian Zetterlund, Nick Cousins and Ersson expire too. That's the summer this sheet gets decided.

Sign him now, or wait

Sign him now: Tyler Kleven. He's 24, playing 20.3 minutes a night on a $1.6 million deal, per NHL data, and he's restricted this summer. A three- or four-year bridge in the $3 million range buys the useful part of his twenties and costs nothing against this year's sheet.

Let it ride: Artem Zub. He's 31, he's played 10 of 17 games with a knee, and he's a pending UFA at $4.6 million. Ottawa has Jordan Spence signed through 2029-30 on the right side and Carter Yakemchuk on an entry-level deal through 2028-29. Let the market name Zub's price in July and decide then.

Sign him now / Wait: Kleven now, cost today about $3 million a year on a bridge, cost next summer rises with every 20-minute night. Zub waits; the right side is already paid for.

The one move the numbers say to make

Trade Burakovsky's expiring $5.5 million for a power-play shooter, and use one of the two open retained slots to do it if you have to.

Ottawa's power play is 31st in the league at 11.9 percent, by our count through 17 games, and the kill is at 74.2 percent. Those are the numbers of a team that's 10-6-1 on goaltending, not on structure.

The 2027 second-rounder and the protected 2029 first from the Tkachuk deal are the chips. Ottawa doesn't need to add salary to add a shooter. It needs to swap it, and a $5.5 million expiring contract with zero points is the easiest swap on the sheet.

Where that player comes from is Gord's beat. What the sheet can carry is mine, and the answer is a straight dollar-for-dollar deal, nothing more.

The caveat

Seventeen games. Ullmark's .945 won't hold, and Ersson's .880 probably won't either. The 7-1-0 split is real but small, and a healthy Ullmark playing 55 games makes a lot of this sheet look smarter.

The other caveat is the Tkachuk return. Three firsts and a second for a 26-year-old captain was a strong price.

But the No. 9 pick became Eklund, who has two points in four games and an ankle injury the team has called extended. Florida has Tkachuk at about $8.2 million through 2027-28, and Pabs has the latest on how Maurice is using him. The trade grades out over three years, not three weeks.

What I'd watch: the accrual line. With $1.4 million of room and no LTIR, Ottawa banks almost nothing toward March, so there is no deadline splash coming unless salary goes out first.

If the Senators are still a top-eight team at the holidays with Ullmark healthy, the Burakovsky swap is how they add. If they aren't, his expiring money is the first thing Staios sells.