Cap Check: Bruins have $6 million in room and a Zacha bill coming

The number: 23:23. That's Connor Clifton's ice time in Boston's 3-0 opening win over the Rangers, the most on the team, per NHL data. Clifton costs $2.25 million.

Charlie McAvoy, who averaged 24:23 a night last season and costs $9.5 million, is serving a six-game suspension that keeps him out until Oct. 13 in San Jose.

It's one game, and I'll say so before anyone else does. It's still a tidy picture of this sheet. The Bruins pay full price at the top, and the reason they have any flexibility left is the inexpensive depth general manager Don Sweeney acquired in July.

Boston has $6.1 million in salary-cap space today. That's unusual for a 45-win team, and it's an appropriate amount to carry.

The problem isn't this season, though. The best bargain on the roster is nine months from unrestricted free agency, and every goal he scores between now and then raises his price.

Cap sheet: Space today, $6,109,916 with 22 on the roster, per PuckPedia as of Friday. The ceiling is $104 million, and there is no LTIR pool. Retained-salary slots used: 1 of 3, Brandon Carlo at $615,000, gone after this season. Contracts: 43 of 50.

Buried in Providence: Henri Jokiharju, who still counts $1.775 million, and Alex Steeves at $400,000. Projected deadline room if nothing changes: about $28.6 million.

The three contracts that define the sheet

Best value: Morgan Geekie, $5.5 million through 2030-31. He scored 39 goals last season on a contract that occupies 5.3 percent of this year's ceiling and falls to 4.8 percent next year. A 39-goal scorer under five percent of the cap is something a front office manages about once a decade.

David Pastrnak, the new captain, produced 100 points last year at $11.25 million, which is 10.8 percent of the cap. Toronto just paid Marchenko $12.5 million. A 100-point winger usually costs more than Boston's does.

Worst value: Elias Lindholm, $7.75 million through 2030-31. He's 31, he has a no-movement clause, and he scored 48 points in 69 games at minus-7.

Two teammates outscored him for considerably less: Pavel Zacha had 65 points at $4.75 million, and Geekie had 68 at $5.5 million. The AAV is survivable; the four more years after this one are the problem.

The one that decides the future: Fraser Minten, $7.2 million starting next season. Boston gave the 22-year-old seven years and $50.4 million on Sept. 8, and seven is the longest term the new collective bargaining agreement lets a team give its own player.

He had 35 points and a plus-21 in 15:33 a night last year, and he carries an $879,167 entry-level hit until July.

That's 6.3 percent of next year's projected ceiling for a player paid on where he's going, which is the same bet Anaheim just made on Luneau.

If Minten is a second-line center by 2028, the contract is a bargain, and if he's only a very good third-line center, Boston owns two Elias Lindholm contracts.

The next two summers

2027 is comfortable on paper. Boston has $84.8 million committed to 16 players against a projected $113.5 million ceiling, with Minten's raise already counted. That leaves $28.7 million for seven roster spots.

Zacha, Casey Mittelstadt, Sean Kuraly, Michael Eyssimont and backup goalie Michael DiPietro are the unrestricted free agents. Mason Lohrei and Marat Khusnutdinov are the restricted ones. Two top-nine forwards, a 25-year-old defenseman who was plus-17 and a backup goalie all have to come out of that $28.7 million.

2028 is the choke point. James Hagens finishes his entry-level contract that summer as a restricted free agent. He's 19 and played 13 and a half minutes in the opener, so there's no responsible number to put on him yet.

His second contract lands on top of Minten's $7.2 million and Pastrnak's $11.25 million, and Clifton and Mark Kastelic expire the same summer.

Sign him now / Wait: Pavel Zacha

Sign him now. The price: five years at $7 million, my projection. That's 6.2 percent of next year's ceiling, up from 4.6 percent today. He had 30 goals and 65 points in 78 games, both career highs, he has missed only eight games in four seasons, and he'll be 30 when the next contract begins.

The comparables: They're all in his own dressing room. Minten got $7.2 million off a 35-point season, Geekie makes $5.5 million and scored 39, and Elias Lindholm's $7.75 million is 7.5 percent of this year's ceiling.

Wait. If Zacha scores 30 again and reaches July 1, he gets priced the way Lindholm was. Seven and a half percent of a $113.5 million ceiling is $8.5 million, and 31 other teams get to bid, so waiting risks $1.5 million a year.

The argument for waiting is one career year at 29 against a four-year average of 21.5 goals.

My call: Sign him now. Sweeney said in September the two sides have "not found a landing spot." Find it at five years, because the shorter term is the protection, and it's the piece Elias Lindholm's contract doesn't have.

The one I'd let ride: Mittelstadt. He had 42 points in 71 games at $5.75 million and played 15:09 a night. Let him play out the season, and let Hagens and Minten demonstrate whether Boston still needs him.

The one move the numbers say to make

Move Jokiharju now, and spend a retention slot to do it.

Jokiharju cleared waivers before the opener and went to Providence, where he still costs $1.775 million against this year's cap, and his $3 million hit runs through next season. Boston has two open retention slots, and Carlo's clears in July. Retaining part of a $3 million contract to clear 2027-28 is an inexpensive solution.

That beats attaching a draft pick. The Bruins sent the 23rd pick in June's draft and a conditional 2028 first to Utah for JJ Peterka. A 2027 second and a conditional 2028 third went to the Rangers for Will Borgen. The pick drawer is thinner than the cap sheet.

Then leave the $6.1 million alone. Unspent space accumulates daily, and it projects to that $28.6 million at the deadline. Boston traded Joonas Korpisalo's full $3 million to New York on July 1, and DiPietro didn't start an NHL game last season, so that flexibility is the insurance policy in goal.

The caveat

One game of ice time is one game. McAvoy returns, Clifton's minutes fall, and Jeremy Swayman's opening shutout doesn't answer the backup question.

The two cap sites differ by a dollar on the total and by one body on the roster count. The $113.5 million ceiling is a projection the league says may be adjusted. The Zacha price is mine, built from his own team's contracts, and a slow first half would pull it down.

What I'd watch: Zacha's goal total in late November. If he's on a 30-goal pace again without a contract, $7 million is no longer the number, and the deadline flexibility has a harder question to answer: add to this team, or sell its best bargain.