Ottawa's season rides on Linus Ullmark's lower-body strain
The Senators are 7-1 when Ullmark starts and 0-2 with Samuel Ersson, and Thursday's evaluation decides who carries the crease.
Ottawa's most valuable player this season has been its goaltender, and on Wednesday night he needed help getting off the ice in Ottawa's rout of the Panthers. The Senators get his evaluation Thursday. Whatever the number of days is, it's the most important number in their season so far.
By our count Ottawa is 7-1 when Linus Ullmark starts and 0-2 when Samuel Ersson does. That's not a goaltending controversy. That's a team that has been leaning on one individual.
What happened
Ottawa led Florida 3-1 with 16:25 left in the third. A puck slid toward the crease, Ullmark kicked out his right pad to steer it away, and then he slumped over. The trainers came out at the whistle and helped him to the room.
Travis Green called it a lower-body strain after the game. He didn't have a timeline, and Ullmark was set to be evaluated Thursday. Ersson finished a game the Senators won 5-1.
The gap
Here's why Ottawa should be nervous. Ullmark is at .945 with a 1.33 goals-against average, per NHL data, and .939 over his last five starts. That's a Vezina pace, and it was carrying a team whose power play has barely shown up.
The Senators are clicking at 13 percent with the man advantage.
Ersson is at .831 and 4.70 in four appearances. That's a small sample, and part of it came in relief appearances. It's still a long way down from .945.
The Senators play the second half of a back-to-back against San Jose on Thursday night, and Ersson was always likely to start that one. He has a good record against the Sharks over his career, 4-1-0 with a .918. That's a reasonable matchup for one night. The real question is the following week, and the one after that.
If Ullmark can't dress as the backup, the likely move is a call to Belleville for Jonas Johansson.
The take
A lower-body strain for a goalie can mean a few days or a few weeks, and nobody outside the Senators' room knows which yet.
What we do know is what Ottawa looks like with him: a 7-3 team that defends well enough to survive an ordinary offense. Without him, I'd call the Senators a .500 team with a backup who has to prove he's an NHL starter in October.
The Senators were right to ride Ullmark through his first eight starts, considering the difference between the two goaltenders. Now they find out whether that was a plan or a bet.
The call: Ullmark misses at least a week. Ersson starts four of the next five, and Ottawa goes 2-3 in that stretch. If Ersson steals those games, Green has a better problem than he thinks.
