Brady Tkachuk goes home, but Linus Ullmark is tonight's problem

Ottawa is going to spend tonight on Brady Tkachuk. I'm spending it on Linus Ullmark. With Jacob Markstrom out 10 to 14 days, Akira Schmid gets the net, but this one turns on whether a Panthers offense scoring 3.33 goals a game can solve a goalie who has beaten Florida for years.

Brady asked out of Ottawa and landed in Sunrise in June. He walks back in as the NHL's First Star of the Week, with back-to-back hat tricks and 10 points in four games. The building will let him have it, and that's fine.

"It's a special place to be and to be able to be here to see some of my best friends and staff as well," Tkachuk said. Paul Maurice wants the noise: "Bring the passion. Bring whatever it is you feel."

The lineup card

Panthers, expected: Brady Tkachuk–Sam Bennett–Matthew Tkachuk; Carter Verhaeghe–Sam Reinhart–Lars Eller; Eetu Luostarinen–Anton Lundell–Sandis Vilmanis; Bokondji Imama–Cole Schwindt–Garnet Hathaway.

On D: Gustav Forsling–Aaron Ekblad, Niko Mikkola–Seth Jones, Dmitry Kulikov–Radko Gudas. Gudas is back after missing three games. Uvis Balinskis is expected to come out, and Schwindt makes his season debut.

In net: Schmid is expected to start. Cooper Black, called up from Charlotte on Tuesday, backs up.

Senators, from their morning skate: Fabian Zetterlund–Tim Stützle–Claude Giroux; Warren Foegele–Dylan Cozens–Drake Batherson; Ridly Greig–Shane Pinto–Michael Amadio; Nick Cousins–Stephen Halliday–Hayden Hodgson.

Ottawa's pairs: Jake Sanderson–Artem Zub, Tyler Kleven–Jordan Spence, Nikolas Matinpalo–Carter Yakemchuk. Ullmark starts.

Who's out

Florida: Markstrom (upper body), plus Aleksander Barkov, Brad Marchand and Jonah Gadjovich on injured reserve. Ottawa: captain Thomas Chabot is out one to two weeks with an upper-body injury, and William Eklund is on injured reserve. Sanderson returns after missing eight games with a lower-body injury.

How they're coming in

The cats are 5-2-2 and have won three straight, with a hat trick in three straight games, a franchise first. Matthew Tkachuk has points in eight straight games by our count, with nine assists in his last three.

Here's the Ferda number. In the 8-3 win over Seattle, the top line barely broke a sweat. Matthew played 12.9 minutes, down 9.1 from the game before, per NHL data. Bennett dropped 7.5 minutes and still scored a hat trick. That's fresh legs for tonight.

Ottawa is 6-3-0 and tied with Florida at 12 points. But the Sens have scored three goals in their last three games, and their power play is at 12.8 percent per NHL data. That's a team leaning heavily on its goaltender.

Florida took three of four from Ottawa last season, 16-12 on aggregate. The books have tonight as a pick'em at -110 with a total of 5.5. Florida is 2-6 against the puck line this season by our count, small sample and all. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

The one matchup

Ullmark against the Tkachuk line. He's 6-1-0 with a .945 save percentage, and .944 over his last five starts per NHL data. He's 14-6-1 in 21 career starts against Florida.

Schmid is at .878 in four games, so the cats can't count on winning a goaltending duel. They need the top line to win the net-front fight and make Ullmark move side to side.

Pabs' read

I've watched this franchise lose a lot of games like this, the loud road barn with a hot goalie at the other end. This group doesn't. Brady scores, Matthew stretches it to nine, and the Panthers win 4-2. Dale.

How to watch

Puck drops at 7:30 p.m. ET from Canadian Tire Centre. Scripps carries it in the Panthers' market, Prime has it in Canada, and 560 WQAM has the radio call.