Gord's Notebook: Sharks kick Hellebuyck's tires, Kucherov waits on the cap

The season starts Tuesday, and the rumor market opens the same night. Fourteen items, one number, and a cap projection that explains why half of them exist.

1. San Jose has kicked Winnipeg's tires on Connor Hellebuyck. Friedman said "tires have been kicked between the two teams," and he didn't know who called whom. His own framing was that Hellebuyck sees his window as the next two or three years and the Sharks get "much closer" with him. Grade: Reported. The read: real interest, no deal.

Hellebuyck has a no-move this season that turns into a 10-team list next year, so the Sharks can wait for the price to drop and Winnipeg knows it. File under: Trade winds.

2. What the numbers say: the Jets are selling a .895. Hellebuyck went 23-23-11 with a 2.86 goals-against average and an .895 save percentage in 57 games last year, his first season under .900. He also won the Hart, the Vezina and the Jennings the year before and started five Olympic games for the gold medalists.

That's the argument on both sides in two sentences. The read: the asks floating around start at a first and an impact forward, for a 33-year-old coming off his worst year. Every GM in the league has the same spreadsheet, and the season opens with Stuart Skinner and a rookie in Winnipeg's net.

3. Kucherov is unsigned, and nobody in Tampa is sweating. LeBrun's version is that both sides are relaxed, want the long-term deal in Tampa, and figure it happens when it happens. Friedman's was sharper: it's rare for BriseBois to let a player this important go this long. Grade: Reported.

The read: his $9.5 million deal expires this summer, and the number that matters isn't in Tampa. It's in item 4. File under: Extension watch.

4. The cap guesstimate: $127.5 million in 2028-29. Friedman relayed the working numbers the league gave the players' association: $104 million now, $113.5 million next season, and a $127.5 million estimate the year after. That last jump would be $14 million in one season, the biggest since the cap came in.

The read: every unsigned star's agent just got a new comparable that doesn't exist yet. Kucherov, Hughes in Minnesota, Edvinsson in Detroit, all of them are pricing against a ceiling that keeps moving. Marcus has the Hughes math. File under: Cap crunch.

5. Larkin's list is still about eight, and the interest is wider than the list. Pagnotta has Montreal, Los Angeles, Philadelphia, Boston, Carolina and San Jose as teams asking about him without being on it.

Detroit wants players who help now, won't retain salary without value back, and only one team on Larkin's list has more than $1 million in space. Chris Ilitch said Larkin "could be here all year." Grade: Reported.

The read: I locked Larkin as a Red Wing for Friday's opener in Sunday's Room, and nothing this week moved me. File under: Trade winds.

6. Detroit's real September problem is Edvinsson. He's a restricted free agent with no contract and no preseason games, and LeBrun said the two sides were set to talk again Sunday. He's 23, went 9-16-25 in 72 games, and was the sixth pick in 2021. Grade: Reported.

The read: an interim GM opening the season with his captain on a trade list and his best young defenseman at home is a bad week to be Shawn Horcoff. Marcus prices the RFA side; my side says Detroit blinks first, because Detroit has to. File under: Cap crunch.

7. Nikishin's agent says teams are calling. Carolina isn't answering. The agent's line is that clubs want him and the Hurricanes won't discuss it; Johnston's was that Carolina has no obligation to move him. Grade: Reported.

The read: a 24-year-old who won't go back to the KHL has no leverage, and Carolina is the team Florida opens against Tuesday with its blue line fully stocked. File under: Trade winds.

8. The Panthers item: Tarasenko waits on a calendar, not a phone. Pagnotta still has Tarasenko among the free agents "evaluating options" as of the weekend, and Friedman's earlier line that Florida and Tarasenko are "eying each other" hasn't been walked back. Grade: Reported.

Florida put eight players on waivers Sunday to get to 23, and Marchand is rehabbing through October. The read: the reunion happens when Marchand's $5.25 million goes on LTIR and not before. Marcus has the sheet. File under: Cap crunch.

9. Montreal is shopping a defenseman, or wants you to think so. Dreger put the Canadiens among the teams trying to make a trade before the opener, and the Montreal chatter has Kent Hughes on the phone. Guhle had adductor surgery on Sept. 16 with a four-to-five-week timeline, and the club still sent David Reinbacher to Laval on Saturday.

Grade: Rumbling. The read: seven defensemen on the roster, the best prospect in Laval, and a GM who likes to be busy. That's smoke with a match nearby. File under: Trade winds.

10. The Rangers rumor has an "if" in it. Pagnotta's line is that a bad start could get Drury thinking about Fox, Lafrenière or Shesterkin, and that nothing is being shopped now. Grade: Smoke. The read: a rumor with a condition attached is a forecast, and the forecast is "New York might be bad." File under: Hot seat.

11. Babcock answered Messier with manners. "I have nothing but respect for him" was the whole reply. The theory making the rounds, that the hire is a distraction from the McDavid questions, is a theory. Grade: Noise. The read: the Oilers' org chart is the story, and it doesn't get quieter with a win Tuesday. File under: Hot seat.

12. Sunday's wire was a garage sale. Seventy-one players went on waivers, including Alexander Holtz and Ville Heinola from Vegas, Henri Jokiharju from Boston, and four goalies: David Rittich, Dylan Garand, Laurent Brossoit and Vitek Vanecek. Saturday's list already cost Dallas a goalie, Remi Poirier to New Jersey, and Nashville a defenseman, Justin Barron to St. Louis.

Grade: On the record. The read: a team thin in net can add a starter's backup for the price of a contract, and see item 2 for which team that is. File under: Cap crunch.

13. Pittsburgh opens with four on injured reserve. Blake Lizotte, Justin Brazeau, Ben Kindel and Ryan Graves, with Bryan Rust and Tristan Broz also being evaluated. Grade: On the record. The read: that's a roster that needs the AHL before October ends. File under: Hot seat.

14. Housekeeping. Pastrnak is the Bruins' 28th captain, and Sully has the parade. Matheson was fined $5,000 for roughing in Montreal's preseason finale, two days before the Habs open in Toronto.

The Islanders signed Logan Stanley for one year; the Leafs signed Nick Blankenburg off his tryout for one; Carolina extended Pyotr Kochetkov for two years at $3.95 million, and Marcus has the comparables. The Panthers open Tuesday at 5 p.m. ET in Raleigh, and the Notebook closes there next Monday.