Kochetkov at $3.95 million is Carolina buying the 2024 version

The number: 3.5%. That's Pyotr Kochetkov's new $3.95 million cap hit measured against next season's $113.5 million ceiling, and it's the reason I like this extension more than his injury-shortened season would suggest.

Carolina extended the 27-year-old on Thursday for two years and $7.9 million, through 2028-29. He's in the last year of a four-year deal at $2 million, so the raise starts next season.

The Hurricanes are paying for the goalie they saw two years ago, not the one they saw last year. At this price, that's a bet a defending champion should make.

Why two years is the right term

Last season was nine games. He went 6-2-0 with a .899 save percentage and a 2.33 GAA before a lower-body injury took most of the year, which is far too small a sample to mean much in either direction.

The bigger sample is more encouraging. In 2023-24 he posted a .911 and a 2.33 over 42 starts, and across 125 career games, all in Carolina, he's at .905. That's a legitimate 1B, and a few organizations would happily call it a 1A.

Two years is the hedge. If the injury year was a blip, Carolina controls him at 3.5% of the cap through his age-29 season. If it wasn't, the contract expires before it becomes a problem, with no buyout calculation and no dead money attached.

The tandem is the point

Brandon Bussi is signed through 2028-29 too, at $1.9 million. Together they cost $5.85 million a year. Plenty of teams pay one starter more than that.

Bussi finished last spring's run after Frederik Andersen was hurt in the Cup Final, with Kochetkov dressed as his backup. So general manager Eric Tulsky now has two goalies who were both part of a championship, for roughly the price of one mid-tier starter.

Tulsky's pitch was short: "Pyotr is an incredibly talented goalie whose aggressive style fits our team very well." The aggressive style is the risk and the reward. When it works, he steals games. When it doesn't, you get a .899.

The structure is agent-friendly: $2.5 million of the $7.9 million arrives as signing bonuses. On a two-year contract that nobody intends to buy out, Carolina surrenders almost nothing by agreeing to that.

Contract card

Term: 2 years (2027-28, 2028-29)

AAV: $3.95 million

Total: $7.9 million

Structure: $2.4M salary + $1.5M signing bonus in year one; $3M salary + $1M signing bonus in year two

Cap hit: about 3.5% of the $113.5 million 2027-28 ceiling

Comparables: Joseph Woll, 3 years at $3.67 million (signed at 25); Akira Schmid, 2 years at $2 million (signed at 26 this summer); Brandon Bussi, 3 years at $1.9 million

Verdict: Fair, leaning team-friendly. The AAV is about right. The short term is the smart part.

The comparables

Woll is the closest match: a young goalie who had shown more than he'd played, compensated like a 1B with starter upside. Kochetkov receives about $280,000 more annually, two summers later, under a considerably higher ceiling.

Schmid represents the low end. Florida's 1B settled at $2 million after filing for arbitration, and Kochetkov, with the longer résumé, gets nearly double.

What I'd watch

The first 20 starts. If Kochetkov is back near .911, Carolina has the best-value tandem in the division at $5.85 million through 2029. If he's closer to .899, Bussi takes the net, and $3.95 million for a backup still isn't a problem.

Both outcomes are survivable, which is exactly what a good contract looks like. Florida gets the first look at this crease in Raleigh on opening night.