Nobody's moving: two trade requests, one standoff, zero trades
Hellebuyck is suspended, Larkin lost the C, Marchenko won't talk extension, and six days before the opener Florida can't take either star it was offered.
The season opens Tuesday in Raleigh. Two stars have asked out, a third won't talk about an extension, and not one of them has been traded. One is suspended. This notebook is about leverage: who has it, who's spending it, and who blinks first.
Grades on everything, as always. On the record, Reported, Rumbling, Smoke, Noise.
1. Start with Florida, because both big names would take it. Connor Hellebuyck and Dylan Larkin would both reportedly accept a trade to the Panthers. Florida can do neither deal. The reason is the same reason the Panthers are good.
Elliotte Friedman said on the 32 Thoughts podcast that Florida offered Evan Rodrigues, the ninth and 25th picks in the 2026 draft and another roster player for Hellebuyck, as relayed by Yardbarker. The roster player was not Anton Lundell. Winnipeg said no. Grade: Reported, and Friedman kept his wording careful, so I will too.
Every piece of that offer is gone. Both picks went to Ottawa in the Brady Tkachuk deal, per PuckPedia. Rodrigues went to New Jersey in the Jacob Markstrom trade.
Florida made its goalie run after Sergei Bobrovsky went to Toronto on July 2, three years at $7 million, per the Miami Herald's Jordan McPherson. The fix was Markstrom, who has two years left at $6 million, and Akira Schmid, acquired from Vegas for a 2028 third.
The read: It was the right call. Every Winnipeg conversation since has run through a goalie coming back (see item 4), and Florida had none to send. That deal was never closing. Tkachuk was available, and he got done. Keeping Lundell out of it was the smartest line in the whole summer. File under: Cap crunch.
2. Hellebuyck has the most leverage and is spending it fastest. He told the Jets privately at exit meetings, then went public on Aug. 27, per The Hockey News. Winnipeg suspended him Sept. 16 for not reporting to camp. On the record, all of it.
He holds a full no-movement clause through July 2027, then a 10-team list, per TSN. He's signed through 2030-31 at $8.5 million.
Kevin Cheveldayoff's line, per THN: "I just want to get this right." Per TSN, he also said, "A contract is a contract in the National Hockey League. Period." That's not a GM in a hurry.
The read: Hellebuyck has maximum leverage on paper and he's already used the loudest tool he has. Staying home hasn't produced a trade. The clause is his card, and it gets weaker next July.
3. What the numbers say. Hellebuyck won the Hart and Vezina in 2024-25. Last season he went 23-23-11 with an .895 save percentage and a 2.86 goals-against average, per TSN. Darren Dreger said on TSN that Winnipeg hasn't seen an offer with "fair value" for him.
The read: Teams are pricing the .895, and the Jets are pricing the Hart. That gap is the whole standoff.
4. The goalie-back problem. Friedman reported this week that the Jets and Sharks have talked about a Hellebuyck trade, as relayed by Pro Hockey Rumors. He also reported that Buffalo's Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen declined to waive his clause to go to Winnipeg, per Markerzone.
Grade on the Sharks talks: Reported. Grade on "Winnipeg needs a goalie in any deal": Rumbling. Nobody has it on the record, but every conversation keeps running through a second goalie.
Pierre LeBrun has named Buffalo, Carolina and Utah as possible landing spots, per TSN. Where Hellebuyck himself wants to go, nobody has reported. Treat any list of his favorites as Noise.
5. Larkin's list sounds like control. It's a cage. Larkin asked for a trade in June. Detroit took the C off him Sept. 11.
At camp he said, "I asked for a trade from the Detroit Red Wings as the captain, and actions have consequences," per The Athletic's Max Bultman. Asked why he asked out: "I'm not ready to go there yet." He wouldn't say whether the request still stands, per NHL.com.
His list is Florida, Minnesota and Vegas, per the Detroit Free Press' Helene St. James, as relayed by Daily Faceoff. Other outlets add Dallas. The reports don't agree, so I'm not picking one.
He has five years left at $8.7 million, a full no-trade clause through 2027-28, then a 10-team list.
The read: All three of the teams everyone agrees on are near the cap, per the Free Press. THN's Owen Cameron had Minnesota with the most room in July, at about $2.4 million. A list of capped-out contenders is a request that can't be granted as written.
6. The Larkin timeline, for the record. He hurt his upper body in off-ice training before camp and missed the start of it.
He practiced with teammates for the first time Wednesday, per MLive's Ansar Khan. Todd McLellan said he won't play Thursday but there's "a chance" for Saturday. That's the timeline. Draw your own conclusions; I'm not drawing any.
7. Marchenko hasn't asked out, which is exactly why Columbus holds the cards. Kevin Weekes reported for ESPN at the draft on June 26 that Marchenko's camp said he isn't interested in a long-term extension in Columbus. Grade: Reported, and still holding.
At his Sept. 18 scrum, per Brian Hedger of the Columbus Dispatch, he joked, "I know only words about hockey right now."
Where does he want to play? "On the ice." Is Columbus the place? "It's too many good questions right now." On the business side: "It's on Don and Dan." On the Weekes report: "Really? I didn't see that."
He has one year left at $3.85 million and becomes an arbitration-eligible RFA next July, per the Dispatch. Don Waddell has said any deal needs NHL talent back, not just picks.
The read: Of the three clubs, Columbus has the most leverage, because its guy is still playing. Montreal is still the name attached, and it's still Rumbling.
8. Who moves first. Hellebuyck. Neither side gets anything out of him sitting at home in October, and the talks are live.
Marchenko's the easier deal on paper, but nothing forces Waddell to do it before the opener, and Chris Johnston expects both sides to "play nice this season," as relayed by THN's Lyle Richardson. Larkin moves last, because his own list stops him.
9. Who's making the mistake. Detroit. They took the C off Larkin and still have him.
That's the worst of both worlds: they sent the message and got nothing for it. Steve Yzerman moved to an adviser role on July 15, per NHL.com, so interim GM Shawn Horcoff now owns a standoff with no captain in it.
10. Housekeeping. The Panthers open at Carolina on Tuesday at 5 p.m. on ESPN, per NHL.com. Six days. Two trade requests. Zero trades. I'll check back when that last number moves.
