Marchenko file: the rumor is Montreal, the problem is $12 million

Kirill Marchenko is in Columbus, in camp, and giving Rick Bowness no attitude problems, per The Athletic's Aaron Portzline. He's also, per most of the insiders who cover this stuff, not planning to sign the extension the Blue Jackets want. Both things are true, which is why the Montreal chatter never dies.

Here's the file as it stands, graded.

1. Won't extend — Reported

ESPN's Kevin Weekes had it first, back in June: the 26-year-old winger was "unwilling to sign an extension" in Columbus, as relayed by The Hockey News' Lyle Richardson. Three months later nobody has knocked it down.

Aaron Portzline of The Athletic wrote from camp that Marchenko was evasive on the subject, and that his non-answers did nothing to address the June report.

The read: when a player has a clean chance to say "I want to be here" and skips it, believe the silence. This one's Reported, and it's holding.

2. Montreal — Rumbling

The Canadiens have been attached to Marchenko since July, when Frank Seravalli reported a "massive offer" and RG Media's Daria Tuboltseva claimed a deal was being negotiated, per Richardson's July 27 roundup. GM Don Waddell refuted it, per the Columbus Dispatch's Brian Hedger, and told The Hockey Writers he had no plans to trade Marchenko.

Now the same names are back. Darren Dreger, on TSN 1050 as relayed by THN, said Montreal showed interest in the offseason but that acquiring Marchenko is "expensive": you give up real assets, then commit roughly $12 million a year to keep him, maybe $14 million if he pops.

Chris Johnston, on his own show as relayed by Richardson, expects both sides to "play nice this season" but wouldn't be surprised if Waddell tests the market.

The read: Rumbling. Multiple insiders, no active negotiation, and a GM on the record saying no. That's smoke with a history, not a deal.

3. What the numbers say

Marchenko is in the last year of a three-year, $11.55 million contract, cap hit $3.85 million, per PuckPedia as of Wednesday. He scored 27 goals and 67 points in 76 games last season, 58 goals over two years. Dreger's $12 million figure would be a raise of more than three times his current hit.

The part everyone skips: he's a restricted free agent next summer with arbitration rights, per Portzline. Columbus owns his rights past this deal. There's no July 1 walk-away. Waddell can qualify him, take him to arbitration, and trade him with a year of control in hand whenever the return is right.

And the return has to be right, because the Jackets just spent picks. They sent a 2026 second (43rd overall), a 2027 third and a 2028 fifth to Colorado for Valeri Nichushkin on June 25, per Daily Faceoff. Nichushkin carries $6.125 million through 2029-30, per PuckPedia. That's a team adding wingers, not shedding them.

Columbus has $11.7 million in space today and $68.5 million committed for 2027-28 against a projected $113.5 million cap, per PuckPedia as of Wednesday. The room exists for Marchenko at $12 million.

What doesn't exist yet is Adam Fantilli's number, and as Elliotte Friedman said on 32 Thoughts, relayed by Pro Hockey Rumors, Columbus can't settle the rest of the sheet until it has one. We covered the Fantilli standoff here: /post/fantilli-blue-jackets-contract-standoff-marchenko.

4. The Montreal side of the ledger

Richardson's point on the Habs is the one I'd underline. Montreal has $2.8 million in space this season and $83.8 million committed for 2027-28, per PuckPedia as of Wednesday, with its own RFAs and UFAs in line. A $12 million Marchenko fits on paper.

It fits a lot less once you've paid the assets to get him and still have to pay the kids.

That's a Habs summer for you: the fit is real in March and gone by July.

The read, for the whole file

File under: Trade winds. The rumor is real and the fit is narrow. My money says Marchenko plays the season in Columbus, the Jackets sort out Fantilli first, and this conversation comes back the week Marchenko's arbitration rights start to matter, which is next June.

If a second outlet reports an actual negotiation before then, we'll upgrade it. Until then: Rumbling, and treat anyone promising more as noise.

Housekeeping: Colorado's side of the Nichushkin trade is the quieter story. Corey Masisak of The Denver Post called replacing him "difficult" and listed Jaden Schwartz, Artturi Lehkonen, Nicolas Roy and Zachary L'Heureux as the internal answers, with Joe Sakic able to shop before the March 1 deadline. See item 3 for why that pick haul mattered to Columbus.