Markstrom doesn't have to be Bob, and that's the whole plan

Florida doesn't need Jacob Markstrom to be Sergei Bobrovsky. It needs him to be league average for 50 nights and let a team that lives in the offensive zone do the rest of the work. That's a smaller ask than people think, and it's the right one.

The goalie story has been the only real worry around this team since Bob signed in Toronto. Two Cups, two parades, and now a 36-year-old who last played here in 2013-14 is projected to start Tuesday's opener in Raleigh, with Akira Schmid behind him.

Why the worry is fair

Markstrom's last season in New Jersey was rough: 44 games, a 3.07 goals-against average and an .883 save percentage. The two seasons before that were .900 and .905. So the real question isn't whether he's still a starter, it's which of those three versions of him shows up in October.

He does bring the size, all 6-foot-6 of it, and a playoff résumé with a .911 save percentage across 31 career postseason games. In 2024-25 his high-danger save percentage ranked second in the entire league, which tells you the big man still eats the chances in tight. It's the ones from distance that got through last year.

Why I'm not panicking

This organization's system doesn't require its goaltender to stand on his head every night. Florida was fifth in the league in offensive-zone time last season and ninth in 5-on-5 shot-attempt share. When the forecheck is working, the other team's breakout dies on the wall and the goalie gets 22 shots, not 35.

Schmid showed that in the preseason finale, stopping 20 of 22 against Tampa and looking composed throughout, even if the kids eventually lost the shootout.

He's also the part of this plan that nobody talks about. Schmid went 16-10-6 in Vegas last season with a 2.59 goals-against average, a .893 save percentage and two shutouts in 34 games, and Florida got him for a 2028 third-round pick.

At 26, he's not a backup you hide on back-to-backs. He's a goalie who can realistically take 30 starts and keep Markstrom fresh for April.

The history lesson

I've watched this franchise live and die on goaltending since Vanbiesbrouck and the original expansion roster. Luongo made bad teams look decent. Bob made a great team win twice. The years in between, when the crease was a revolving door, are the ones nobody in Sunrise wants back.

This isn't that. Markstrom's first go-round ended when Florida sent him to Vancouver to bring Luongo home. Twelve years later he's back on a team that has already won, and he said as much himself: "Everyone here has won, and they've won multiple times."

He's right, and that's exactly the point: he doesn't have to carry this room, he just has to avoid dropping it.

Lineup watch: Markstrom in Raleigh on Tuesday, then the trip west to San Jose on Thursday. I'd give Schmid one of the first four games no matter how the opener goes, just to set the tone that this is a real 1A-1B.

The number I'm watching: Markstrom's save percentage through October. If it starts with a nine, the Panthers win the Atlantic. If it starts with an eight, Zito's phone gets busy by Thanksgiving.

Pabs' read: It's not a downgrade you should lose sleep over. It's a different way of winning, with a goalie who only has to be solid behind a team that keeps the puck. Dale, big man. Just stop the ones you're supposed to.